Why Dealin’ Dave Dombrowski is comfortable running back the core of the Phillies’ roster in 2024

Nine of Dave Dombrowski’s last 12 teams went to the playoffs. Three won the pennant. One — the 2018 Red Sox — triumphed in the World Series.

But through it all, the architect rarely rolled up his blueprints.

Never mind, for instance, that the 2011 Tigers won 95 games and played for the American League crown. Dombrowski still signed Prince Fielder for $214 million in the offseason. He added nine-time Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter after Detroit appeared in the World Series in 2012. When a 93-win 2013 season flamed out in the ALCS, Dealin’ Dave flipped Fielder for star second baseman Ian Kinsler and signed closer Joe Nathan. A division series loss in 2014 preceded a pitcher-for-power swap of Rick Porcello and Yoenis Céspedes.

» READ MORE: How the Phillies closed the seven-year, $172 million megadeal with Aaron Nola

In Boston, Dombrowski’s first two teams posted twin AL East titles and first-round exits. His response: a blockbuster trade for Chris Sale in the 2016-17 offseason, then a managerial change and a free-agent reunion with slugger J.D. Martinez the next year.

Dombrowski’s credentials as one of the best team-builders in the last four decades are undisputed. Past and present colleagues paint the Phillies’ 67-year-old president of baseball operations as an expert at evaluating his own roster and insist he’s never satisfied with it. Rival executives just assume he will make seismic moves. One suggested with a laugh that Dombrowski always “has something up his sleeve.”

As someone who knows him well put it, “He just understands what the roster makeup needs to be, what the organization needs to do overall, and he’s able to have the vision to see what he needs to do to accomplish the goal.”

It would be out of character, then, for Dombrowski to simply run back a roster, even though the Phillies played at a 100-win pace from June 3 on before coughing up the National League Championship Series at home in Games 6 and 7. But with the winter meetings set to begin Monday in Nashville, he has signaled that he may do just that.

Oh, the Phillies won’t look exactly the same in 2024. Multiple sources confirmed that they’re gauging external options to possibly give center fielder Johan Rojas time in triple A while also not blocking him in the majors. They remain in the mix for Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though it’s likely a long shot. They’re expected to replace reliever Craig Kimbrel, a free agent after NLCS meltdowns on back-to-back nights in Arizona tarnished his revival season.

And Dombrowski being Dombrowski, he’s always willing to talk trades.

“My gut tells me they’re going to do stuff,” one AL team executive said.

But there’s a good chance that what you saw in October is pretty much what you will get in April after the Phillies ended homegrown No. 2 starter Aaron Nola’s free agency almost before it began.

“We would’ve made a big move if we would’ve lost Aaron, so to me, it still [qualifies as] a big move,” Dombrowski said last month after bringing back Nola on a seven-year, $172 million deal. “But we have a really good club. There’s not gaping holes in places.”

» READ MORE: Aaron Nola is staying home, a big factor in his decision to remain with the Phillies

Indeed, the Phillies have $200 million tied up in 2024 commitments to a catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first baseman (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), right fielder (Nick Castellanos), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), and six pitchers (starters Zack Wheeler, Nola, and Taijuan Walker; relievers José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Seranthony Domínguez). Other core players (second baseman Bryson Stott, third baseman Alec Bohm, outfielder Brandon Marsh, and starter Ranger Suárez) are under club control. Even the bullpen is mostly filled.

Nothing in baseball is set in stone. The Phillies roster is close.

That wasn’t the case for many of Dombrowski’s best teams in Detroit and Boston, and most of his big moves, notably in free agency, came in response to a specific need. To wit:

Last winter, Dombrowski used free agency for a similarly singular purpose. The Phillies had a middle-infield vacancy after turning down Jean Segura’s option. They targeted Turner in a star-studded shortstop class and signed him to an 11-year, $300 million megadeal.

Round positional hole, round free-agent peg. Simple.

“In those situations,” Dombrowski said, “usually there was a hole that needed to be addressed.”

Dombrowski’s attempts at taking a blender to a roster’s ingredients have come more through offseason trades. In transitioning the Red Sox to life after Ortiz, for example, he focused on pitching, building a super rotation by dealing prospects for Sale and putting him alongside co-ace David Price, Porcello, and Eduardo Rodriguez.

» READ MORE: Free-agent options for two Phillies’ needs: Relief pitching and a bench outfielder

Then there was the Fielder-Kinsler swap. The Tigers wanted out from the last seven years of Fielder’s contract after a drop in production that culminated with an RBI-less postseason in 2013. They also wanted to get more athletic at the top of the order.

But the show-stopping trade had other implications. It enabled Miguel Cabrera to move back to first base after two seasons at third and opened third base for Castellanos, then a touted prospect who was ready to graduate to the majors if the Tigers could find a spot.

Ten years later, Dombrowski pushes back against the narrative that the Phillies are merely getting the band back together by citing another star player making a positional change: Harper.

Yes, Harper began playing first base in July. But he made only 49 starts at first, including the postseason, and the Phillies went 29-20, a 95-win pace that Dombrowski is eager to see play out over a full season because it brings the added benefit of relocating Schwarber to DH and thus improving the outfield defense.

“Now our infield’s different all year long,” Dombrowski said, also citing Rojas and starter [Cristopher] Sánchez as second-half contributors who could have a larger impact over a full season.

Besides, if the Phillies were compelled to change the roster mix, there isn’t an obvious subtraction from the team’s core.

» READ MORE: Staying at first shows Bryce Harper’s commitment to Phillies — and an expectation they will pay him back

Castellanos’ flaws, specifically his tendency to chase pitches out of the strike zone, were exposed in his 0-for-23, 11-strikeout finish to the NLCS. A trade is complicated, however, because he’s due to make a total of $60 million over the next three years, unless a team is willing to trade its bad contract for Castellanos’.

Likewise, offloading Walker’s remaining three years and $54 million is both ideal and unlikely. It might also be necessary for the Phillies to win the Yamamoto bidding.

So, maybe it really does make the most sense for Dealin’ Dave to run back the core of the roster and seek upgrades on the margins.

“In some ways,” Dombrowski said, “even though it’s the same names, it’s not the same team that was there for the whole year. I’m looking forward to having that group together all year.”

» READ MORE: Murphy: If the Angels are smart, they’ll trade Mike Trout. If the Phillies are smart, they’ll resist the urge.