Phillies face unprecedented pressure the next 2 months to determine fate of the roster and manager
The arrival of Durantula only amplifies how, after two years of playoff failure, this Phillies team and Rob Thomson need a strong stretch run and postseason.
This isn’t the most important 10 weeks in Phillies history (counting playoffs), but it’s probably the most ominous, at least in terms of the franchise’s near future.
Never before has so much hinged on a postdeadline homestretch. Not in 1964, or 1979, or 2011. Not quite like this.
The Phillies entered Monday’s game against the visiting Orioles in first place, aglow with a series win over the Tigers and three series wins in their last four, and with a flashy new 100-mph bullpen piece.
It is fleeting happiness. It is empty joy. For so many people on John Middleton’s bloated payroll, it means nothing if it does not continue well into the fall.
How things go the rest of August and September, and how far the Phillies make it in October, will probably tell the tale for the manager, the second baseman, the third baseman, the designated hitter, the No. 3 starter, the former closer, and one of the setup guys (the good one).
The trade for tarantulan closer Jhoan Duran last week, along with the addition of Max Kepler replacement Harrison Bader, indicates that Dave Dombrowski and his henchmen realize the moment of this moment.
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Consider:
It will take a deep playoff run to assure the future of manager Rob Thomson, who, after a trip to the World Series, has piloted consecutive playoff collapses.
It might take similar postseason success to entice pending free agent Kyle Schwarber to return, regardless of how economical or extravagant his next contract is.
Any postseason disappointments by the team probably will include disappointing performances from second baseman Bryson Stott, who is extremely popular with fans, and/or third baseman Alec Bohm, who, these days, is generally tolerated.
They are first-round picks who by now were expected to be franchise cornerstones, but Stott, 27, has a .188 average in 33 postseason games, and Bohm, 29, is at .214 in 34 playoff games. Stott is having the worst season of his career, and Bohm is miles away from his ceiling. Their futures are very much in question.
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A deep playoff run might persuade the Phillies to re-sign Ranger Suárez, if they can afford it. If the team seems fundamentally flawed and in line for a youth reset, the pursuit of Suárez and the luxury-tax burden that he will bring becomes much less appetizing.
Before Duran arrived, the Phillies spent 2½ months scrambling to find a replacement for José Alvarado, who was suspended 80 games for a failed PED test. He is eligible to return Aug. 19. The PED bust means he cannot pitch in the postseason, but if he’s electric down the stretch, the Phillies are likely to pick up his $9 million club option for 2026. (They just blew $8.5 million on Jordan Romano.) However, if Alvarado sputters in the next few weeks, he’s a $500,000 buyout away from a fresh start elsewhere.
Lefty reliever Matt Strahm, an All-Star last season, has a $4.5 million club option for 2026 that not only vests if he pitches at least 60 innings this season, but it vests at $7.5 million. Entering Monday he was on track to pitch about 62 innings, but his usage has slowed just a bit since late May, as has his effectiveness. How the Phillies handle him in the next two months will be fascinating, especially since the return of Alvarado from suspension and the return of Aaron Nola from injury should make the bullpen a crowded place.
Finally, Sir Nick.
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In the four seasons preceding his arrival in Philly, Nick Castellanos’ WAR in 506 games was 8.7. In the three-plus seasons and 564 games (entering Monday) since he signed a five-year, $100 million contract, his WAR is 1.7. He is a poor defender, but he has respectable numbers as a designated hitter, which, at the age of 34 next season, is probably where his future lies.
If his postseason OPS isn’t significantly higher than the .687 mark he has accrued in 34 games with the Phillies, his future should probably lie elsewhere.
Of course, if Castellanos again fails to produce in October, his won’t be the only Philadelphia story that ends in 2025.