Ranking the Phillies’ top 10 prospects: Key question, 2026 outlook for each

Across baseball, 211 rookies made 250 plate appearances or pitched at least 65 innings in a season since 2023.

None were Phillies.

The only Phillies rookies who even came close to those thresholds were Orion Kerkering in 2024 and Otto Kemp last season. Kerkering was a 1.6 WAR player as a middle reliever; Kemp was slightly below replacement level as a utility man, based on Baseball-Reference’s WAR calculation, while playing through injuries.

And that, plus a two-month flash of promise from Johan Rojas in 2023, represented the farm system’s last three graduating classes.

» READ MORE: The Phillies are sticking with a veteran core in 2026. But this time the kids have to play, too.

This year should be different, with two rookies in line to win jobs out of camp. Justin Crawford is the presumptive opening-day center fielder, and Andrew Painter could be in the season-opening rotation.

And indications are that 21-year-old infielder Aidan Miller might not be far behind.

“You never know,” farm director Luke Murton said recently. “He’ll be a big-league spring training invite. You bring him in and see what we’ve got. We’ll see where the roster ends up throughout the year. But from a talent standpoint, from a readiness standpoint, the ones that are really good, they always are ready a little sooner than you think they are.”

It’ll be important for the Phillies to infuse the major-league roster with youth but also to develop more talent in the lower levels of the system, where trades of teen prospects Eduardo Tait (for Jhoan Duran), Starlyn Caba (for Jesús Luzardo), and William Bergolla (for Tanner Banks) thinned the A-ball ranks over the last 18 months.

With pitchers and catchers due to report for spring training two days after the Super Bowl, ‘tis the season for prospect rankings. Baseball America recently put Miller (No. 14), Painter (No. 32), and Crawford (No. 75) among its top-100 prospects. ESPN ranked the Phillies as the 17th-best farm system in baseball.

So, let’s present The Inquirer’s preseason ranking of the Phillies’ top 10 prospects, an annual exercise carried out with input from opposing scouts.

Age: 22 (on June 9) | Height/weight: 6-2 / 210 | Bats/throws: Right

2025 stats: .259/.382/.427, 13 homers, 52 steals, 14.9% walk rate, 23.7% strikeout rate at double-A Reading (489 plate appearances); .333/.514/.519, 1 HR, 7 SB, 24.3% BB rate, 18.9% K rate at triple-A Lehigh Valley (37 PA).

Outlook: Two years after a broken bone near his left wrist caused him to fall into the Phillies’ lap with the 27th overall pick in the draft, Miller keeps getting better. Not only did he thrive at shortstop when many evaluators believed he would have to move to third base, but he sharpened his contact rate to go with extra-base power from the right side. Then, last season, he surprised even Murton by swiping 59 bases to lead the organization. One NL scout said Miller has “All-Star upside.” All that remains is ...

Key question: How quickly can he learn third base?

As a shortstop, Miller’s path to the Phillies is clogged by Trea Turner, who had a defensive renaissance last season. Murton said the Phillies will expose Miller to third base in spring training. But it’ll be interesting to see how much third base he actually plays, and how fast the Phillies push him if he starts hot in triple A and/or Alec Bohm falters again in April. Dave Dombrowski called up Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers to help contending Red Sox teams in 2016 and 2017. It’s easy to see him doing the same with Miller.

Age: 23 (on April 10) | Height/weight: 6-7 / 215 | Throws: Right

2025 stats: 3.97 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, 2.2% walk rate, 26.7% strikeout rate at low-A Clearwater (11⅓ innings); 5.65 ERA, 1.547 WHIP, 9.7% BB rate, 23.4% K rate at Lehigh Valley (106⅔ IP).

Outlook: OK, so Painter’s grand return after missing two years with a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery was rougher than even the Phillies expected. Rather than being ready for his major-league debut by “July-ish,” as Dombrowski famously predicted, Painter struggled in triple A. But he did stay healthy, making 26 starts and working 118 innings. And, well, “You hear a lot of statistics of what guys do their first year out of Tommy John,” Murton said, “and how much better the second year goes.”

» READ MORE: Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter stayed healthy, but ‘didn’t do everything I wanted to this year’ in triple A

Key question: How much better will Painter actually be?

More specifically, will Painter’s fastball command return to preinjury levels? Many rival evaluators “cut him some slack,” as one NL scout said, in reaching triple A for the first time after the two-year absence. “I think it was just injury- and rust-related,” said the scout, who still projects Painter as a No. 2 starter in the majors while “maintaining an appropriate level of concern for the command.” Maybe it’ll help if the Phillies throw Painter into the big-league fire right away. And if Zack Wheeler isn’t ready for opening day, they probably will.

Age: 22 | Height/weight: 6-1 / 175 | Bats/throws: Left/right

2025 stats: .334/.411/.452, 7 HR, 46 SB, 11.5% BB rate, 18% K rate at Lehigh Valley (506 PA).

Outlook: As the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford and a first-round draft pick out of high school in 2022, Crawford has long been destined for the majors. And after hitting .300 at every level of the minor leagues and winning a batting title last season in the International League, he’s about to get his chance. As Dombrowski said, “I don’t know what else he really does at the minor league level at this point.”

» READ MORE: What about Justin Crawford's hitting style makes him such a polarizing prospect

Key question: Does he hit too many balls on the ground?

Crawford’s detractors cite a 59.4% ground-ball rate in triple A that would’ve easily led the majors ahead of Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich (56.7%). But given Crawford’s elite speed, one NL scout questioned whether all the ground balls are such a bad thing. “Hopefully it doesn’t matter,” Lehigh Valley hitting coach Adam Lind said. “His approach works right now. His swing works to where he can hit the ball all over the yard.” And Crawford is adept at putting the bat on the ball, which would bring a different dimension to a Phillies’ offense that features a lot of swing and miss.

Age: 22 | Height/weight: 6-0 / 210 | Throws: Right

2025 stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 22.2% BB rate, 55.6% K rate at Clearwater (2 IP).

Outlook: It’s hard to top getting drafted in the first round and signing for $3 million, but the highlight of Wood’s 2025 season was throwing a 19-strikeout no-hitter for Arkansas in the College World Series. He made two pro starts before the end of last season, including a rough first inning in the playoffs, and figures to open this year in the rotation at Clearwater.

Key question: Long-term, is he a starter or a reliever?

Wood was in the bullpen through most of his college career before starting as a senior. The Phillies intend to use him as a starter to develop his multiple breaking pitches. But Wood’s path to the big leagues might be quicker as a reliever, especially given his power fastball. Eventually, his role will depend on how his slider and changeup develop relative to his nasty curveball.

Age: 21 | Height/weight: 5-11 / 180 | Bats/throws: Right

2025 stats: .285/.377/.452, 11 HR, 10 SB, 10.1% BB rate, 16.1% K rate at Clearwater (316 PA); .256/.348/.369, 4 HR, 14 SB, 11.1% BB rate, 20.7% K rate at high-A Jersey Shore (198 PA); .182/.250/.273, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8.3% BB rate, 25% K rate at Reading (24 PA).

Outlook: After a blazing start last season (.322 average, eight homers through May), he “hit a touch of a wall” in his first full pro season, Murton said, and slumped to .237 the rest of the way. The Phillies challenged him with two promotions, including a late-season cameo with Reading, where he was among the youngest players in the Eastern League. Despite his listed weight, he’s probably closer to 210 pounds, so he’ll need to stay on top of his conditioning.

Key question: What’s his ceiling as a hitter?

After playing mostly second base last season, Escobar will likely get time at third to increase his versatility, according to Murton. But his bat will carry him as far as he goes. The Phillies believe his right-handed swing will continue to produce high-contact skills and power to the gaps. One AL evaluator compared him to the Astros’ Isaac Paredes as a hit-first infielder capable of playing multiple positions.

Age: 21 | Height/weight: 5-10 / 190 | Bats/throws: Left

2025 stats: .262/.363/.381, 4 HR, 37 SB, 13.1% BB rate, 14.9% K rate at Clearwater (502 PA); .279/.396/.326, 0 HR, 13 SB, 15.1% BB rate, 15.1% K rate at Jersey Shore (53 PA); .190/.227/.286, 0 HR, 2 SB, 4.5% BB rate, 9.1% K rate at Reading (22 PA).

Outlook: Another hitter with a high contact rate and speed, Nori rose quickly through the system in his first full pro season after getting drafted in the first round in 2024. The son of longtime NBA assistant coach Micah Nori, he trains in the offseason with Kyle Schwarber and has drawn praise for his advanced approach at the plate.

Key question: Can he be an everyday center fielder?

Nori might be more of a true center fielder than Crawford, depending on which scouts you ask. One NL evaluator said Nori has a “[Johnny] Damon-esque ceiling,” but noted that he’s undersized, in the mold of Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick. Maybe that’s why another NL scout wondered if Nori is more realistically a fourth outfielder in the majors unless he develops more power at the plate.

Age: 23 (on June 9) | Height/weight: 6-1 / 213 | Throws: Right

2025 stats: 3.24 ERA, 1.620 WHIP, 16% BB rate, 25.3% K rate at Reading (16⅔ IP).

Outlook: Chace came from the Orioles in a deadline trade in 2024 and immediately rose up the Phillies’ prospect ranks. But he didn’t throw much going into camp last spring, tore an elbow ligament early in the season, and had Tommy John surgery. He isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season.

Key question: What’s his best role in the majors?

If he stayed healthy, Chace might have reached the majors last season, likely as a reliever. It’s still possible the bullpen will be his best path, with an effective fastball-slider combination. But before the Phillies can plan on him in any role, they must see if his stuff plays as well as it did before surgery.

Age: 25 (on March 3) | Height/weight: 6-3 / 225 | Bats/throws: Left/right

2025 stats: .240/.370/.430, 18 HR, 21 SB, 15.8% BB rate, 22.5% K rate at Lehigh Valley (506 PA)

Outlook: Rincones followed a promising spring training with a poor first half. But he hit 10 home runs after the All-Star break and stayed healthy all season, then was added to the 40-man roster. His struggles against left-handed pitching are pronounced (.107 average/.323 OPS last season). But it’s easy to see him getting a chance to contribute in the majors this year.

Key question: Will he ever figure out lefties?

Probably not. And that’s OK with the Phillies, who like what they’ve seen from Rincones vs. righties and believe he can be the strong side of an outfield platoon. One problem: They already have a player like that in Brandon Marsh.

Age: 20 (on March 14) | Height/weight: 6-3 / 200 | Throws: Right

2025 stats: None.

Outlook: Fisher was committed to pitching in college at Indiana until the Phillies drafted him in the seventh round and gave him second-round money. They signed Fisher for $1.25 million, the largest bonus ever paid to a seventh-round pick. Rather than making his pro debut late last season, Fisher went to the Phillies’ fall instructional camp.

Key question: Will the Phillies’ big bet pay off?

According to Baseball America, Fisher has a four-pitch mix that includes a curveball and slider. He also has superior athleticism, as a former All-State quarterback in Indiana. And he likely will begin his pro career in Clearwater, pitching in the same rotation as Wood and sharing the spotlight.

Age: 17 | Height/weight: 6-3 / 216 | Bats/throws: Right.

2025 stats: None.

Outlook: It’s a reflection of the state of the Phillies’ farm system that Nos. 9 and 10 on this list haven’t made their pro debuts. Renteria headlined the Phillies’ international amateur class, signing two weeks ago for $4 million, tied with former outfield prospect Jhailyn Ortiz’s club record.

Key question: Will the Phillies finally have an international superstar?

Check back in about five years. Renteria will begin his pro career in the Dominican Summer League and isn’t likely to play stateside until at least next season. The Phillies haven’t had much luck chasing their Ronald Acuña Jr. or Juan Soto. Renteria showed promise in Venezuela and on the youth circuit, including showcases in the U.S. with Perfect Game. But there’s a long way to go before the projection turns into reality.