Pakistan crisis raises fears of destabilization
The government's ineffectual response to floods has some saying Zardari could be forced out.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The humanitarian and economic disaster caused by the worst floods in Pakistan's history could spark political unrest that could destabilize the government, which would deal a major blow to the Obama administration's efforts to fight violent Islamic extremism.
The government's shambling response to floods that have affected a third of the country has some analysts saying that President Asif Ali Zardari could be forced out, possibly by the military, which has ruled Pakistan for more than half its 63-year history.
Other experts caution that the state itself could collapse, as hunger and destitution trigger explosions of popular anger that was already seething over massive unemployment, high fuel prices, widespread power outages, corruption, and a bloody insurgency by al-Qaeda-allied extremists.
On Saturday, the United Nations confirmed that the deadly waterborne disease cholera had surfaced. Additionally, a surge of floodwater swelled the Indus River, threatening previously spared cities and towns in the south.
One case of cholera was confirmed in Mingora, the main town in the northwest's Swat Valley, U.N. spokesman Maurizio Giuliano said. But other cases were suspected, and aid workers began responding to all those exhibiting acute watery diarrhea as if it they had cholera, Giuliano said.
The floods have affected 14 million people, with at least 1,600 dead and about 3 million left homeless. But the impact will be felt throughout the country of 180 million.
"The powers that be - that is, the military and bureaucratic establishment - are mulling the formation of a national government, with or without" Zardari's ruling Pakistan Peoples Party, said Najam Sethi, editor of the weekly Friday Times. "I know this is definitely being discussed."
"There is a perception in the army that you need good governance to get out of the economic crisis, and there is no good governance," he said.
The Obama administration has stepped up emergency aid to $76 million, eager to counter the influence of Islamic extremist groups that are feeding and housing victims through charitable front organizations in areas the government hasn't reached.
Some U.S. officials worry that those groups could exploit the crisis to recruit new members and bolster their fight to impose hard-line Islamic rule on nuclear-armed Pakistan.
"I think the mid- to long-term radicalization threat accelerates because of the mass migration and the frustration that is coming from this," said Thomas Lynch, a research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington.
Pakistan is battling extremist groups led by the Pakistani Taliban, whose strongholds on the country's northwestern fringe also provide bases to al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and allied extremists fighting NATO and Afghan troops in neighboring Afghanistan.
The Pentagon announced Friday that a three-ship task force carrying 2,000 Marines, Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, transport helicopters, and relief supplies was sailing for Pakistan. It will replace the Peleliu, an amphibious assault vessel that has lent 19 helicopters and 1,000 Marines to the aid operations.
U.S. officials, who requested anonymity so they could speak more freely, downplayed the threat of near-term political upheaval and dismissed the danger of a coup, saying that the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, wants the military out of politics.
"The military is perfectly happy to let the civilian government screw up," said one U.S. official. "The military does not want to take over because they get blamed for all the deficiencies in government."
The potential for serious turmoil, these U.S. officials said, will grow after the floods subside. Then the government must grapple with rebuilding infrastructure and caring for millions of poor, mostly rural people who have lost their homes, crops, and livestock.
"The Pakistani military quickly mobilized to support relief efforts in areas affected by the floods, and . . . seems to be handling things effectively," a second U.S. official said. "The popular ire so far seems directed at the [government]. As with any natural disaster, the reconstruction phase can be a challenge, and that's when Pakistan's civilian agencies will need to step up to the plate."
Zardari, who went on with a high-rolling visit to France and Britain while Pakistan grappled with its worst-ever natural disaster, is the focus of much of the anger over the government's inability to cope.
He assumed control of the PPP after the 2007 assassination of his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
