New Jersey will vote for a new governor. But the stakes go far beyond the Garden State.

The eyes of the nation are on the Garden State.

New Jersey voters will head to the polls tomorrow as America watches whether Republican Jack Ciattarelli pulls off an upset or Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds the line and gives her party something to celebrate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The results of the tight race could be a barometer, nationally, for which party has an edge, and signal the type of messaging and candidate that can win over New Jersey voters in an increasingly purple state.

The race has attracted national attention and resources from both parties — especially Democrats who see the seat as a critical opportunity to build momentum and safeguard the state from the policies of President Donald Trump.

Republicans, meanwhile, see potential for a huge pickup in Ciattarelli’s third run for the office — this time buoyed by the momentum of a grassroots MAGA movement after Trump’s 2024 win — and the hope that some Democrats uninspired by Sherrill stay home or give the Republican a shot.

» READ MORE: Jack Ciattarelli looks to South Jersey to flip NJ red

Ciattarelli spent his final campaign week rallying with Puerto Rican voters in Passaic County and taking his “It’s Time” bus tour around the state. He held meet-and-greets, rallies, and diner stops over the weekend in Monmouth, Ocean, Union, and Bergen Counties.

Sherrill, who would be only the second woman elected governor in the state should she prevail on Tuesday, rallied with former President Barack Obama on Saturday in Newark and with Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim on Sunday in Camden and Mount Laurel Township. The events followed a week that included a “Driving Down Costs” bus tour and appearances with former Transportation Secretary and presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg and Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle L. Parker.

» READ MORE: All eyes are on Mikie Sherrill to hold the line in a must-win contest for NJ Democrats

Along with her promise to take on landlords “colluding to raise rents” and to tackle pharmaceutical prices, Sherrill reiterated her campaign promise to freeze utility rate hikes on her first day in office at the rally with Obama on Saturday.

“New Jersey, I’m not playing,” she told the audience. “I’m not writing a strongly worded letter and I’m not starting up a working group. I am not doing a 10-year study. I’m declaring a state of emergency.”

For decades, New Jerseyans had voted blue at the national level while electing Republicans to the governor’s mansion. Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 850,000 voters in New Jersey, but 2.2 million voters are registered unaffiliated. And GOP registrations have outpaced Democratic ones since the 2024 presidential election, when Trump swung the state significantly redder, losing by only 6 points.

» READ MORE: Unaffiliated voters could swing the N.J. governor’s race. Here’s what some of them think of the candidates.

The last gubernatorial battle in 2021 shocked many in the state when Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy won reelection by a slim, 3-point margin.

A record amount of money has poured into the race in the expensive media market that overlaps with Philadelphia and New York City.

Most polls have shown Sherrill with a single-digit edge, a lead that is within the margin of error in many of the surveys. However, a Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 30 showed Sherrill leading by 8 points, outside of the survey’s margin of error. Emerson College, a respected firm found the race tied in two separate polls, one from September and another released on Thursday.

Ashley Koning, the director of the Rutgers Center for Public Interest Polling, said either candidate has a “very plausible path to victory.”

There are dueling headwinds at play in the contest for New Jersey governor, too. Both Trump and Murphy are unpopular with about half of New Jersey voters. New Jersey hasn’t elected the same party to a third term for the governorship since 1961, but Republicans have also not won the office while their party has held the White House since 1985.

Once the votes are tallied in Tuesday’s election, New Jersey political history will be made either way.

Democratic leaders have projected confidence despite tight polls and some concern Sherrill’s cautious campaign could fail to motivate voters.

Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said he expects the race to be a close win for Democrats, noting “a win is a win.”

He resisted the critiques from some fellow Democrats that Sherrill played her campaign too safe, “in an era of brash bravado, machismo, and Donald Trump, and these candidates basically saying whatever the hell they want.”

“I think what she’s been doing is putting out a pretty compelling message to New Jerseyans and campaigning everywhere to make sure that they understand what she’s focused on,” he said.

The party’s vice chair, Pa. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D., Philadelphia) predicted a good night for Democrats in New Jersey. “There’s that famous saying that ‘Trenton makes, the world takes,’ and I think Trenton is going to make a lot of momentum that we are going to take into 2026 and beyond.”

“I feel it, you know, I feel it on the ground,” said Sen. Andy Kim (D., N.J.) who campaigned with Sherrill in between fielding questions from fellow Democrats in Washington about what the race looks like back home.

“Everyone I talked to knows what’s at stake,” Kim said.

Chris Russell, Ciattarelli’s political strategist, argued that Ciattarelli has garnered support from voters who have traditionally supported Democrats by delivering them a clearer message on affordability.

“We put a significant amount of time and resources, driven and led by Jack, to be present in minority communities like the Hispanic community and the Black community, and we believe that effort is going to pay off,” he said.

As the candidates made their final burst of media appearances in the countdown to Election Day, Ciattarelli, in a town hall with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Thursday night, said the Republican campaign energy “is electric.” Ciattarelli said he was encouraged by early-vote and vote-by-mail numbers, which, while trailing Democrats, had surpassed 2021 GOP turnout numbers.

“We go after those one out of four Republicans … who typically only vote in presidential years,” Ciattarelli said on Hannity’s program. “We’ve done a magnificent job, our local Republican organizations have, in getting those people to vote by mail or vote early.”

State Sen. Latham Tiver, a South Jersey Republican, said Ciattarelli’s campaign stops are a “totally different vibe” than his last run in 2021. He recalls Ciattarelli introducing himself table to table, but now, Tiver said when the candidate enters the room, people flock to him.

“Jack’s doing everything he can. … He’s pounding the pavement, he’s meeting more and more people, and we’re all out there doing the same thing for him,” Tiver said.

In an otherwise sleepy election cycle, New Jersey and Virginia, also electing a governor this month, have the spotlight. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court retention races have also garnered an outsized amount of attention for a judicial race and could be a bellwether for one of the nation’s largest battlegrounds.

As the candidates make their final push to lead New Jersey, the outcome will likely depend on who shows up at the polls Tuesday.

Both campaigns have motivated bases, but the election could come down to the less engaged and whether they decide to vote. Despite a record amount of spending in the state, only about 2% of voters remained undecided in polls.

“I don’t think people give enough credit — pollsters, political wonks — to just how burnt out the average American is,” said Jackie Cornell, who previously ran field operations for Obama’s campaign in New Jersey.

“They just don’t want to hear anything about any of this any more, and I worry that will be the deterrent more so than anything else.”