What the Kansas abortion vote might mean for Pennsylvania’s key 2022 races

Kansas — yes, Kansas — handed abortion-rights advocates a major victory Tuesday night, and Pennsylvania Democrats hope it’s a sign of things to come in key races here.

Voters in the conservative Sunflower State decisively rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the state legislature to ban abortion. About 60% voted no, even on a day when far more Republicans than Democrats turned out for the state’s gubernatorial primary. The vote to protect abortion rights even extended into a number of rural counties that have long favored Republicans.

Some Democrats saw the result as a proof-of-concept for their candidates who have pointed to abortion as a landscape-altering issue in critical Pennsylvania races, like those for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. The Kansas vote, after all, was the first formal test of the public reaction to the June Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. And it comes as Pennsylvania Democrats like Attorney General Josh Shapiro (the gubernatorial nominee), U.S. Rep. Susan Wild, and others in tight races have argued that the issue could reshape the vote this fall in their favor, despite many other indicators signaling a GOP-friendly political environment.

“If Republicans think the issue of abortion isn’t on the minds of voters, tonight’s results should put them on notice,” a Kansas Republican strategist told the Wall Street Journal.

Former Democratic Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius told Politico that the Roe decision “has lit people on fire.”

That’s exactly what Democrats in Pennsylvania are hoping for as they face November elections with a deeply unpopular President Joe Biden, persistent inflation, and the historical trend of the party in power getting hammered in midterms.

» READ MORE: Democrats hope abortion can help them keep hold of suburban voters

Ever since the Roe decision, Democrats in tough races have been pointing to abortion as an issue that could motivate liberal voters and turn wavering moderates back toward Democrats, especially in suburban swing areas. They say pushes to ban or severely restrict abortion cut against popular opinion, and show that the GOP is too extreme to be trusted.

The next Pennsylvania governor is likely to be the difference between tough new abortion laws — as favored by State Sen. Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee — and leaving the state’s law as is, since Shapiro has said he would veto new restrictions. (Abortion is legal in Pennsylvania up to 24 weeks). The Republican-controlled state legislature, in a move similar to Kansas’, is also working to advance a constitutional amendment that would go around the governor and open the door to a potential ban here.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s most competitive U.S. House races are likely to turn on moderate suburban voters, who Democrats believe will be moved by the new threats to abortion access. It might not be enough to save them from losing the House. But former Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, of Allentown, said last month that the issue could save some suburban Democrats and limit GOP gains.

“Voters made clear in a state much redder than Pennsylvania that they don’t want the GOP’s toxic agenda to take away the rights of Pennsylvania women to make their own health-care decisions,” James Singer, a spokesperson for House Democrats’ campaign arm, said Wednesday.

Shapiro blasted out a fund-raising email Wednesday morning, telling supporters: “We can defend the freedom to choose in Pennsylvania this fall, just like they did in Kansas. But to do it, we’ve got to win this race.”

Of course, there are limits to what we can extrapolate from the Kansas vote. It was one state on one night, and there’s a difference between a vote on a single issue and wider campaigns in which voters will be weighing a collection of different policies — along with individual candidate attributes and records. Wild’s House race or the gubernatorial contest is unlikely to be decided on just one thing.

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday found that the economy is still the top concern nationally, cited by 24% of Americans, and Biden gets deeply negative ratings there.

But abortion and gun laws were next in the survey at 17% each (and guns are another issue on which Democrats argue that Republicans are far out of step with suburban swing voters). And the poll found continued slow but steady gains for Democrats on the generic ballot question (which asks voters which party they want to control Congress), an uptick that has coincided with the leak and then confirmation of the Roe decision.

It’s still just one vote, and it remains to be seen if abortion remains such a driving issue for the next three months, or if others rise to the forefront. But for now, Democrats are basking in good news for them out of Kansas.

And how often does that sentence get written?