Nikola Jokić and Jimmy Butler are favorites to win NBA Finals MVP

The 2023 NBA Finals are set: The top-seeded Denver Nuggets of the Western Conference will face the eighth-seeded Miami Heat of the Eastern Conference.

The Nuggets open as big favorites to take the series, which comes as no surprise. They have a two-time MVP in Nikola Jokić and a budding star in Jamal Murray, who played lights-out in the Western Conference finals and averaged more than 30 points.

Meanwhile, the Heat are led by Jimmy Butler, the catalyst for their amazing playoff run that nearly ended in the play-in round, along with the unlikely rise of role player Caleb Martin, who scored a game-high 26 points to help close out the Boston Celtics on Monday night.

It should come as no surprise that Jokić (-350) and Butler (+350) are the favorites at BetMGM to win the NBA Finals MVP as the two best players on their teams. Is there value on other options to take home the Bill Russell Trophy?

Here’s a look at the odds to win Finals MVP, and two options worth betting ahead of the series beginning on Thursday.

» READ MORE: Nuggets open NBA Finals matchup with Heat as big favorites to win Game 1 and series

Odds updated as of 9:45 a.m. Tuesday.

Coming off a series when he struggled heavily against the Celtics’ defense, mainly Al Horford, Bam Adebayo is due for a bounce-back series, especially if the Heat are to win the title. After scoring at least 20 points in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, Adebayo struggled from the field in the games after, but his defensive impact is always felt, with the ability to switch onto smaller guards and defend at a high level in one-on-one situations.

Adebayo likely will draw Jokić for a large portion of the series, meaning his defense will be in the spotlight more than ever. With a defensive rating of 110.9 this season, according to StatMuse, Adebayo will have to continue playing at an elite level to slow down the Nuggets’ offense, along with attacking Jokić and Aaron Gordon on the offensive end. The Heat’s big man averaged 20.5 points and 4.5 rebounds, along with three steals and 1.5 blocks, in two matchups with Denver this season.

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Every so often, when the stars in a series are canceling each other out with top-notch performances or struggling, a role player will emerge and take home the Finals MVP award. We saw it in 2015, when Andre Iguodala won the award by averaging 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and four assists for the Golden State Warriors, and Kawhi Leonard with similar stats (17.8 points, 6.4 rebounds) with the San Antonio Spurs in 2014.

With all eyes from the Heat on the Joker and Murray in this series, Michael Porter Jr. could be a long shot worth betting on to win the award, with his potential to have open shots with the attention the Nuggets main stars draw. In these playoffs, Porter is averaging nearly 15 points and eight rebounds per game, while shooting 40.8% from three-point range.

The fourth-year pro from Missouri has scored in double figures in 13 of 15 playoff games, including a 25-point outing against the Timberwolves in the first round and three double-doubles in the Nuggets’ sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals.

If you don’t get in on Murray’s 12/1 price before it lowers, Porter, who could see some time defensively on Butler and Martin, may be worth sprinkling a few dollars on before his odds lower if he makes some noise early in the NBA Finals.