Nuggets open NBA Finals matchup with Heat as big favorites to win Game 1 and series

An early look at the 2023 NBA Finals odds between the Heat and Nuggets when Game 1 tips off on June 1

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, left, looks to pass the ball as Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo defends in the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Dec. 30, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)Read moreDavid Zalubowski / AP

Updated May 30, 2023, 12:08 a.m. ET

Published May 29, 2023, 11:18 p.m. ET

After the Denver Nuggets finished off the Los Angeles last week, the Miami Heat finally took down the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, avoiding making history by becoming the first team to blow a 3-0 lead and being eliminating, earning their second NBA Finals appearance in the last four seasons.

The betting markets went haywire after the Celtics’ Game 4 win last Tuesday night, jumping from +700 to win the conference to as low as +225 before Game 5 at BetMGM, then down to +120 after the Celtics sent the series back to Miami. After a miraculous buzzer beating win in Game 6, the Celtics were -350 to win the series, and 7.5-point favorites entering Game 7.

The Heat overcame losing three straight games, becoming the fourth team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead but still end up winning the series. It last happened 20 years ago, when the Dallas Mavericks blew a 3-0 series lead to the Portland Trailblazers, but closed out the series at home in convincing fashion.

We’ll now have to till Thursday before the Heat and Nuggets tip-off off their series in Denver, but oddsmakers have already released lines ahead of the NBA Finals matchup.

Prior to the Heat win on Monday night, the Nuggets were slim favorites at BetMGM to take home their first-ever Larry O’Brien Championship trophy, valued at -125, with Miami sitting at 14/1 and the Celtics at +125 entering Game 7.

Before the NBA Finals begin, the Nuggets are still the favorites, while the Heat, just like every other series this postseason, are big underdogs. Can the Heat steal game one on the road for the fourth series in a row and continue their outstanding, yet chaotic postseason run?

Odds updated as of 11:45 p.m. on May 29

NBA Finals: Nuggets vs. Heat series odds (via BetMGM)

Nuggets -400
Heat +300

The Heat and Jimmy Butler will have another uphill climb after going the distance with the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. Entering the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat were Heat +400 to advance past the Celtics, and now sit at +300 to get past the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic.

Meanwhile, for the Nuggets, their odds to win the NBA title shot back up to -400 after the Celtics were eliminated. Opening at -275 after sweeping the Lakers, the Nuggets saw their odds drop game after game during Boston’s comeback, but now are comfortably the favorites to win it all.

The key in this series will be how Miami neutralizes Jokic, who is likely to be guarded by Bam Adebayo, who has the fourth best odds to win Finals MVP.

NBA Finals Game 1: Nuggets vs. Heat odds (via BetMGM)

Point spread: Nuggets -8.5
Money line: Nuggets: -400; Heat: +310
Total: 219.5

Expect Denver to be favored in most games this series, even with the Heat upsetting the Bucks in round one and the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Nuggets were only truly threatened in their series against the Suns, after Phoenix tied the series up 2-2. After a convincing Game 5 win, Denver all but shut the series down, then went on to sweep the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.