CT Pan among best long shots top back ahead of 2024 Cognizant Classic

It’s been the year of the longshot in the PGA Tour and, if history is any indicator, that theme should continue this week at the 2024 Cognizant Classic at PGA National.

One of the toughest courses on the circuit, PGA National presents trouble at every turn. There’s water everywhere, the finishing stretch (aptly nicknamed “the bear trap”) is a monster and the weather will also poise problems for the players. With so many challenges to contend with, it’s no wonder that this tournament (previously known as the Honda Classic) has been a happy hunting ground for longshots.

A lot of seasoned golf bettors will tell you to ignore the top of the board, which is headlined by Rory McIlroy at +700, and we’ll follow suit by focusing on a trio of players in the triple-digits.

Coming off a T4 last week in Mexico, this is a great setup for a punt on C.T. Pan. PGA National is not a course that you can just overpower, so backing crafty players who can work their away around the track is a good way to find some value. It also doesn’t hurt that Pan has three top-20 finishes in six starts at PGA National, including a third-place showing in 2021.

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When you make your way this far down the board it’s going to be hard to make a slam-dunk case for a bet, but you can still find some hope. That’s the case with Jhonnatan Vegas. The Venezuelan was underwhelming in his last start in Mexico, but he did find some form in Phoenix with a T22 finish. What makes Vegas so appealing at this price is that he’s played this event nine times and has some impressive finishes, including a fourth-place showing and a couple of other top-20s. Additionally, the Venezuelan has only missed the cut once in his career at this extremely difficult course, which is quite something at this course.

PGA National is a place where it’s OK to get weird, so we’ll do just that with a flutter on Zach Johnson at +50000. The two-time Major champion and U.S. Ryder Cup captain is well beyond his salad days, but his form is not abject right now. More important that, though, is the fact that ZJ has plenty of experience at PGA National and two of his last three trips here ended with impressive finishes. Johnson came in eighth in 2022 and was 12th one year ago.

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