Betting the over on the Rays win total among best bets to make for American League futures

The MLB regular season is a month away, which means it’s the perfect time to dive into the win totals market and place some futures.

I’ve identified value bets in both leagues, but today we’re focused on the American League, where we’re targeting one team in each of the three divisions.

How will the Rays get there? Who knows, but they will because Tampa Bay always finds a way to exceed expectations and will likely do so again this season, despite playing in the brutal AL East.

The team that won 99 games in 2023 and has averaged 94 over the past five full seasons is projected to win far fewer in 2024; FanGraphs and PECOTA have the Rays at 86 wins, and for good reason

Ace Tyler Glasgow and outfielder Manuel Margot were traded to the Dodgers in December and Shane McClanahan was lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

But the Rays’ roster, while not loaded with superstars or household names, has great depth and is full of players who do the little things needed to win.

Randy Arozarena is probably the most well-known player, but don’t sleep on Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe or Josh Lowe. They also have two top-20 MLB prospects – elite infielders Junior Caminero (No. 4) and Carson Williams (No. 20) – expected to contribute at some point this season.

If there is a weakness on this team, it’s the starting rotation. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a true ace with Glasgow gone and McClanahan shelved, but no manager has done a better job of getting the most out of his arms than Kevin Cash.

The Rays continually do a great job of maximizing their pitching talent and putting together staffs that get the job done. There’s no reason to think that’ll change this season.

Tampa Bay always seems to exceed expectations, so in addition to betting them to go over their win total, I’m also going to sprinkle a little bit on them to make the playoffs at +130.

This is both a bet on the Guardians and a fade on the rest of the AL Central.

The Twins should put together another strong season, but I don’t have much faith in the Tigers, White Sox or Royals, so the Guardians should have plenty of opportunities to rack up wins.

Cleveland, which won just 76 games last year, has gone over this number in nine of the past 10 seasons (excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign).

The Guardians are a well-run organization that always competes and has a high floor. They’ll have to do it under a new manager this season, with Stephen Vogt replacing future Hall of Famer Terry Francona, who won three AL Manager of the Year awards and took Cleveland to the playoffs six times, winning one pennant.

Jose Ramirez provides a strong presence in the lineup, and a rotation topped by Shane Beiber and Triston McKenzie gives me a lot of confidence in this team.

The Central is Minnesota’s to lose this season, but the Guardians should beat up on the rest of the division enough to keep them in the race and avoid being sellers at the trade deadline.

All they need is to hover around .500, which despite all the changes this season, should be doable.

» READ MORE: Bet on this Phillies win total prop before the 2024 MLB season begins

Yes, this number is extremely low, but the A’s are full of incompetence.

Oakland’s roster is devoid of high-end talent, and should a player emerge in the first couple of months of the season, he’s likely to be dealt at the trade deadline.

The A’s finished 50-112 in 2023, and while it’s hard to repeat a record that dismal, I’m not sure they’re seven wins better.

Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom are promising young players and Nick Allen is an elite defender, but this team just doesn’t have a ton of talent and also plays in a division with a trio of contenders in the Mariners, Rangers and Astros.

If the A’s were in a different division, they might be able to steal some wins against another bottom-tier team, but I just don’t see that happening with their roster in a top-loaded AL Central.

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