Laiatu Latu being a top 10 selection among best value bets to make in first-round of 2024 NFL draft

The NFL Draft has finally arrived, and I have you covered with some final best bets for Thursday’s first round.

In this article, I’ll focus on the defensive side of the ball, where I still see value on the board in different markets.

As always, be sure to line shop, as the odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks.

This year’s defensive line/edge class contains four players I’d consider locks to go off the board in the first round: Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse and Byron Murphy. All four are expected to be off the board by pick No. 20 at the latest based on their over/under markets.

Given his freaky athletic traits and undeniable pass-rushing upside, I’d be shocked if Chop Robinson doesn’t come off the board in the first round, too.

Darius Robinson has seen a significant climb in his draft odds, and he’s now listed at -400 to be a first-round pick on DraftKings. He’ll be in attendance in Detroit on Thursday.

Jer’Zhan Newton is priced at -280 to be a first-round pick, and it would be surprising to see him fall to Day 2 with his elite pass-rushing ability.

We need all seven players to be drafted in the first round for the over on this prop to hit, but at +190 odds, we’re at an implied probability of around 34%. I believe there’s value in that number.

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It’s easy to fall in love with Robinson’s athletic ability.

The Penn State product ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash, and his 1.54-second 10-yard split was the fastest ever for an edge over 250 pounds. He also broad jumped 128 inches, which is in the 95th percentile.

NFL teams always bet on traits in the draft, and Robinson’s are as good as it gets.

Robinson only had 10 career sacks over three seasons at PSU, but there’s a clear upside for much more, and coaches will believe they can elevate him into a star pass rusher.

One such coach could be the Buccaneers OLB assistant George Edwards. He helped turn Micah Parsons, a similarly athletically gifted Penn State product, into one of the league’s top defenders.

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Amarius Mims is the Chop Robinson of offensive tackles in this class with an athletic profile that is simply absurd.

Mims is 6-foot-7 ¾ and weighs 340 pounds, with an 86 ¾-inch wingspan and 36 ⅛-inch arms. Per MockDraftable, those numbers are in the 91st percentile or better.

Mims also scored a 9.57 Relative Athletic Score at the combine, and his 5.07-second 40-yard dash was eye-popping for a player of his size.

Mims is a former five-star recruit but lacks experience, having played only 682 snaps over the last two seasons.

Still, teams will bet on his immense athletic upside. Specifically, I believe the Steelers at No. 20, the Dolphins at No. 21 and the Eagles at No. 22 could all be in play for Mims’ services.

With this prop, we lock in all three potential landing spots.

If it weren’t for Laiatu Latu’s medical concerns, he’d be seen as a lock to be a top-10 pick in this year’s draft.

However, Latu previously medically retired while at Washington after needing fusion surgery in his neck. That devastating injury sidelined his college career, but he later returned to the field and put together a dominant season for UCLA.

Latu was PFF’s highest-graded pass rusher in the country last season, and he led this year’s draft class with a 26.2% pass-rush win rate.

The Falcons are in win-now mode after signing Kirk Cousins to a big contract, and if they want a player who can come in and immediately push for 10-plus sacks as a rookie, they’ll take Latu with the No. 8 pick.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.