Eagles drafting a defensive back early had favorable betting value in the 2024 NFL draft

The Eagles took a step back defensively in 2023.

The biggest problem was the pass defense, with the Eagles finishing 28th in EPA per Dropback allowed and PFF’s Coverage grades.

Despite their career-best seasons in 2022, Darius Slay and James Bradberry experienced a significant regression in the past season. Their loss of speed and coverage capability was a disappointment, leading to detrimental results.

After starting the year 10-1, the Eagles lost five of their final six games. During this pathetic stretch, they allowed almost 250 passing yards per game, including 12 passing touchdowns to only three interceptions.

In the playoffs, the secondary allowed Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to complete 78% of their passes for over 230 yards in an easy 32-9 victory.

So, what’s the first step in correcting the problem?

Drafting well.

(Via FanDuel Sportsbook)

At the time of writing, the markets somewhat believe the Eagles will draft an offensive lineman. FanDuel has this option listed at +150, while DraftKings has it at +140.

Yes, the Eagles must replace Hall of Famer Jason Kelce at center. But does the line really need fixing or improvement?

The Eagles led the league in PFF’s pass-blocking grades last season behind a pair of stud tackles, Jordan Mailata (third among 81 tackles in PFF’s grades) and Lane Johnson (13th). Landon Dickerson still has some juice left at guard.

While the offensive line was worse in the run game, Nick Sirianni still cooked up a decent ground attack by utilizing Jalen Hurts in the dual-action game. The Eagles ranked fourth in EPA per Rush, while D’Andre Swift rushed for over 1,000 yards and Hurts for over 600.

Philly signed Saquon Barkley in the offseason, who should improve his numbers now that he’s no longer running behind the Giants’ abysmal front five.

The Eagles don’t need more offensive firepower.

They need defense. Specifically, pass defense. More specifically, coverage defense.

» READ MORE: There’s betting value in Eagles selecting a defensive back in first round of 2024 NFL draft

So, who could they select instead?

I’m considering a cornerback to replace the lifeless bodies on the current roster.

Either Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry or Nate Wiggins would do.

While he’s not the highest-rated prospect on the board, I think DeJean is a potential superstar.

Thanks to his tremendous football IQ, he can read and react to routes pre-snap – something he credits to his time as a high school quarterback. He combines smarts with high athleticism, versatility, and tackling.

DeJean can match up with any receiver and play in any scheme. Last season at Iowa, he allowed zero touchdowns in 338 coverage snaps.

I’m also very high on McKinstry, a smooth athlete with high IQ, excellent recovery speed and annoying ball-swatting ability.

I’m lower on Wiggins, mainly because of his diminutive frame – he’s only around 180 pounds. However, The Athletic grades him higher than the former two, mainly because of his crazy speed (4.28 40-yard dash), excellent awareness, and elite on-ball coverage skills (18 receptions allowed on 41 targets in 2023 with Clemson).

I wonder how he’ll hold up against bigger NFL receivers.

Regardless, three guys will likely be available to the Eagles at pick 22 at a position of need, and we’re getting excellent odds on that outcome.

The mock draft community agrees with me instead of the sportsbooks. Vegas Refund has tracked 32 mock drafts from writers around the industry. Of these, 18 have the Eagles taking a cornerback with their first-round pick, with 16 mocking DeJean or Wiggins.

So, 56% of mock drafters believe the Eagles will select a cornerback, implying around -130 fair odds.

Yet FanDuel Sportsbook is listing the Eagles to pick a cornerback at +180 odds.

That’s excellent value and worthy of a wager.

» READ MORE: Sizing up the NFL Draft market after Caleb Williams goes off the board at No. 1

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