Creighton has betting value to win Big East conference over Villanova, UConn and others

We’re about a month into the college basketball season, meaning we have a month-sized sample to begin analyzing how the Big East conference season might play out.

And, after a month of play, the Big East might be the best conference in the country.

It doesn’t quite have the depth of the other large conferences, and there are two pathetic teams in the basement between Georgetown and DePaul.

But the top of the league is elite. There are three Big East teams in the AP Top 10, with those three teams ranking fourth (Connecticut), fifth (Marquette), and sixth (Creighton) in KenPom’s ratings.

Behind those three is Villanova, which is still very dangerous. Providence and Butler are out to surprising 8-2 starts, and Rick Pitino’s Johnnies could wake up at any moment.

That begs the question: which teams could win the title?

That begs a further question: which teams are the best bets to win the title?

There’s one team I’m targeting entering Big East play.

One of these three squads will almost certainly win the Big East regular season title.

So, advising you to bet on the one with the longest odds seems obvious and silly.

But at this moment and the current odds, Creighton is the best bet in this market, with Caesars Sportsbook offering a decently long +475.

The advanced predictive statistics projects Marquette, UConn and Creighton as nearly identical squads.

Moreover, Evan Miya’s numbers project Creighton as the second-best team in the Big East behind UConn, and Bart Torvik’s numbers have Creighton as the sole best team.

At the minimum, Creighton has just as good of a chance as the other two to win the conference and, thus, is undervalued in the markets.

ShotQuality’s metrics, which attempt to cut through shooting variance by focusing on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, also project Creighton as the league’s best team.

That gets into Greg McDermott’s scheme, which heavily centers around big man Ryan Kalkbrenner.

» READ MORE: Villanova’s wacky season continues with a win as the Wildcats hit a break in the schedule

On offense, Creighton plays through the post plenty – where Kalk is nearly perfectly efficient (1.36 post-up PPP, 96th percentile) – and then plays inside-out off him, running lots of off-ball screens and handoffs on the perimeter to generate open shots for several elite shooters, led by Baylor Scheierman (18.6 PPG, 38.5% from 3).

On defense, Creighton runs a drop-coverage scheme headlined by Kalkbrenner. The perimeter defenders overplay ball-handlers and wings, denying 3-pointers and funneling them toward a dominant, 7-foot-2 rim protector.

Generally, opposing ball-handlers don’t want to drive straight into Kalkbrenner, so Creighton forces inefficient mid-range jumpers.

What this results in is a near-perfect brand of two-way modern college basketball. Creighton ranks fourth in 3-point attempt rate (50.9%), making 40%, and first in 3-point attempt rate allowed (23.8%), with opponents making only 28%. The Bluejays are first nationally in percentage of points scored from 3 (43.4%) and are first in percentage of points allowed from 2 (69.7%).

You’ll win many basketball games if you create open 3′s and deny open 3′s.

Of course, Creighton isn’t a one-trick pony.

Kalkbrenner is among the nation’s most valuable interior two-way players.

Creighton doesn’t just shoot 3′s. The Bluejays are third nationally in 2-point shooting behind Kalk’s 10 paint points per game.

And he somehow provides elite rim protection without fouling, as the Bluejays are first nationally in 3-point rate allowed.

Point guard Steven Ashworth is a maestro in ball screens, providing a half-court bailout option for McDermott. Pair him with Kalkbrenner as the roll-man, and the Bluejays offer a pick-and-roll combination that rivals Marquette’s.

It’s also worth mentioning the Bluejays rank 16th nationally in experience, 42nd in minutes continuity and 24th in average height. The team is filled with veterans, everyone knows their roles, and the team is filled with range and athleticism.

Creighton is among the Big East’s and the nation’s best teams, and it’s easy to see them putting together the pieces and using two-way play to drown Marquette and Connecticut in conference play.

And it’s worth taking a shot on Creighton to win the Big East.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.