BMW Championship odds, predictions: Two longshots to back outright

It’s every golf bettor’s dream to cash a huge ticket. You know, the one where you invest a little bit and get a lot back.

Although the BMW Championship is traditionally won by a marquee player — the last three winners were Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas — I’m here to break down my two favorite longshot bets to win this week at Wilmington Country Club. In order to select such players, I used a combination of my statistical modeling and results at relevant courses.

Here are my top longshots for the BMW Championship. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Mitchell has posted some strong results of late to pair with outstanding finishes at correlative courses.

Over his previous five starts on U.S. soil, Mitchell has finishes of 18-7-6-54-31. Although not the most impressive run, his results at correlative courses to Wilmington Country Club are perhaps even more impressive. In his last two starts at Quail Hollow Country Club, he owns two top-10 finishes, including a third in 2021. Additionally, Mitchell finished in a tie for fifth last year at TPC Twin Cities.

In terms of his statistical modeling output, Mitchell is reliable across the board. Over his previous 12 qualifying rounds, he’s third in driving distance, second in SG: Ball Striking and 17th in SG: Approach. Additionally, he’s sixth in birdies or better gained, 14th in three-putt avoidance and 10th in Par 4 Efficiency.

Mitchell also ranks eighth overall in the field over his last 12 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards (no Par-71 qualifier) and his lone win on the PGA Tour — the 2019 Honda Classic — came on a course that is over 7,400 yards.

For those reasons, Mitchell is absolutely worth a flier at 80/1. Personally, I’d play him at anything better than 70/1.

» READ MORE: BMW Championship odds, predictions: Our 3 best derivative bets

I recognize that List has missed four cuts in a row, but this number is absolutely insane for someone who excels on lengthy courses.

Over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards, List ranks 16th overall in my statistical model. That’s no recent improvement either as he simultaneously sits 16th overall in the field over his previous 75 rounds on courses that measure over 7,400 yards. Plus, List is a winner on tour this season at Torrey Pines, a behemoth setup that stretches over 7,700 yards.

Further, List has posted strong finishes at correlative courses to Wilmington Country Club. In the 2021 Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, List finished in a tie for sixth, five shots behind eventual winner Rory McIlroy. Additionally, although recent results haven’t been kind, List has two top-20 finishes at Riviera Country Club in his career.

What gives me the most confidence in List is his output in my ultra-specific model. Over his last 24 rounds on Par-71′s over 7,400 yards, List is 12th overall in the field. He’ll need to resolve his iron play — 36th in SG: Approach — to have a chance at winning this week, but List sits 17th or better in all of the five other most emphasized categories.

Bottom line: at 200/1, I’m absolutely willing to invest a few bucks with someone who is a previous winner on tour this season.

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