BMW Championship odds, predictions: our three best derivative bets

Having broken down my statistical modeling strategy for the BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club, we can now begin sharing our top bets.

In selecting my three best derivative bets for this week’s event, I used both a combination of my statistical model as well as players’s results at relevant courses. As a reminder, the correlated courses I used to aid in my handicap for this week are: Quail Hollow, Riviera Country Club, Bethpage Black, Congressional, TPC Twin Cities and Club de Golf Chapultepec.

With that established, let’s dive into the plays. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Although Rory is arriving in Wilmington fresh off a missed cut at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he was thoroughly impressive in the preceding events.

Dating back to the Masters, the four-time major champion posted eight consecutive top-20 finishes before last week’s missed cut and owns five top-5 finishes in that span. Plus, Rory has gained strokes tee-to-green in 14 consecutive events, but has largely been let down by his putter. At a venue where putting isn’t comparatively as important, expect Rory’s ball-striking to give him a great chance this week.

Rory is perhaps unsurprisingly first overall in my statistical model because of his relevant results at correlated tracks. He’s a two-time winner at Quail Hollow Club to pair with two additional top-10 finishes at that track and has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts at Riviera Country Club. He also appears to have an affinity for this particular playoff event as he owns four consecutive top-20 finishes, including two top-5 finishes, at the BMW Championship.

In terms of his individual measures in my key stats, Rory leads the field in driving distance, SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach and Par 4 Efficiency. He’s also second in birdies or better gained and eighth in three-putt avoidance while ranking 12th or better in both proximity measures.

Even if you eliminate the two qualifiers — “courses over 7,400 yards” and “Par 71 courses” — Rory still ranks second overall in the field over his last 24 rounds and third overall across his previous 12 rounds. Based on those outputs, I’ll play Rory at +200 or better for a top-five finish.

Like Rory, Thomas has a lot of strong results at relevant courses that should inform a strong finish this week.

He won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, owns three top-10′s in his last five starts at Riviera Country Club and has top-10′s at both Club de Golf Chapultepec and Bethpage Black. Plus, although it’s not technically a directly correlative track, it’s worth noting Thomas is a former winner at the BMW Championship in 2019 at Medinah, which measures north of 7,500 yards but features a fourth par 5.

In terms of my statistical model, Thomas sits second overall in the field over his previous 24 qualifying rounds. Across that span, he’s 10th in the field in driving distance, third in SG: Ball Striking and second in SG: Approach. Further, he’s first in the field in birdies or better gained and second in Par 4 Efficiency.

Although I’m slightly concerned he’s 53rd in the field in three-putt avoidance over that specific measure, that doesn’t appear to have plagued him lately. Just over his last 24 rounds overall with the specifiers removed, he jumps up to 26th overall in the field and gained on the field in three of four rounds at the FedEx St. Jude.

Given those metrics, I’ll play Thomas at +130 or better for a top-10 finish.

For me, this is the ultimate buy-low spot on List, who arrives in Wilmington having missed four consecutive cuts.

However, List is a bomber who excels on lengthy setups and has produced good results at correlated courses. Over his last 100 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards, List is 16th overall in that statistical. Across his previous 24 rounds on Par-71′s over 7,400 yards, he’s 12th overall in the field.

In the latter projection, List sits second overall in the field in driving distance and 11th overall in the field in SG: Ball Striking. He also ranks 11th overall in the field in birdies or better gained, 15th in three-putt avoidance and 17th in Par 4 Efficiency.

If there’s one area of concerns with List, it’s his irons. But, in that same projection, he’s respectable *enough* - 36th in SG: Approach, 37th in Proximity: 150-175 yards - that he’s worth backing in my estimation.

As for his results on correlative courses, List owns two top-10 finishes in his last three starts at Quail Hollow, four career top-30 finishes at Riviera Country Club and a T-32nd at TPC Twin Cities in 2020. He also won at Torrey Pines (South) this past January which, as a par-72 is ever-so-different, but is still worth considering as a 7,400-plus yard track.

For those reasons, take List at +125 or better for a top-30 finish.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.