Should Liverpool be on upset alert vs. Ajax?

It’s been a jarring start to the season for Liverpool FC. A few months ago, we were wondering if the Reds would be the first team ever capture the quadruple (winning the league title, FA Cup, League Cup and Champions League). Now, there are questions being asked if they’ll even get out of the group stage of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.

And while it’s important not to overreact to a seven-game sample size, there were reasons to be concerned about Jurgen Klopp’s side coming into the new campaign. Because of their quadruple quest in 2021-22, the Reds played the maximum amount of games possible in a soccer season. They won the FA Cup and League Cup, made it to the Champions League Final and were in the Premier League title race until the final match of the campaign.

Liverpool has an aging core that was playing high-stakes matches from August until May. That will take its toll. Does it put Liverpool on upset alert Tuesday vs. Ajax?

Liverpool: -185

Ajax: +430

Draw: +370

Liverpool is off to a pedestrian 2-3-1 (W-D-L) start in the Premier League and is 0-0-1 in the Champions League after a discouraging 4-1 loss to Napoli last week. And even though their +9 goal differential and +5.5 expected goal (xG) differential in the league make it seem like this team has been more unlucky than uninspiring, Liverpool pasted relegation-favorites Bournemouth, 9-0, at Anfield last month. Take the Bournemouth match out of the equation and the Reds would have an even goal differential and a +2.5 xG differential.

Injuries have played a huge role in Liverpool’s dip in form, but even the regulars in the lineup are struggling. Mo Salah’s shot numbers are down, Virgil van Dijk looks a step slow in defense and the midfield duo of Jordan Henderson and James Milner are overmatched.

Some of those concerns should be alleviated with the return of Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota, but those two players won’t solve the defensive issues that keep popping up this season.

Only Manchester City allowed fewer expected goals than Liverpool in 2021-22, and the two clubs finished tied for the best goals against mark in the league last season. It’s been a different story for the Reds out of the gates this season, though, as they’ve conceded 6.7 xG across six league matches and are coming off a dismal 4.4 xGA performance against Napoli last week. The defense is vulnerable and Ajax is not the type of team you want to be facing while you’re trying to sort out your structure.

Although they play in a much softer league and are coping with a lot of turnover, Ajax has posted some eye-popping attacking numbers to start the season.

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Ajax is 6-0-0 with 21 goals scored and three goals allowed to start the domestic campaign and just blew out Rangers, 4-0, in the Champions League opener. According to FootyStats, Ajax is averaging 2.44 expected goals per match in the Eredivisie.

A swarming attack that can pounce on any mistake in an instant, Ajax has the personnel and system to test this Liverpool defense, which was taken for milkshakes by Napoli just a week ago.

In all likelihood, Liverpool will get things sorted out and will start to trudge its way back up the table and qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League. But the team hasn’t shown any reason for bettors to feel confident laying this kind of price with them and Ajax is a tricky team that can expose some of Liverpool’s defensive flaws.

Until further notice, the Reds are on upset watch.

Ajax +430

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