College basketball national championship odds: Houston occupies top spot

There’s a new No. 1 in college basketball’s national rankings, with undefeated Purdue (10-0) ascending to the catbird’s seat. However, last week’s No. 1 — which fell to fifth in the new Top 25 poll released Monday — is still holding onto its spot atop the college basketball national championship odds board.

The Houston Cougars, who suffered their first defeat of the season Saturday, remain the favorite at BetMGM to be the last team standing at this year’s Final Four — which, ironically, takes place in Houston.

In fact, the Cougars currently are the only team at BetMGM with single-digit odds to win it all. They’re also the team that has taken the most money at BetMGM.

With the nonconference season winding down, here’s a fresh look at 2022-23 college basketball national championship odds and action.

Note: All odds and records updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 12.

Houston jumped to the top of the national rankings for the first time in nearly four decades after racing out to a 6-0 start. However, the Cougars’ stay in the Top 25 penthouse lasted just two weeks, as they plummeted four spots following Saturday’s 71-65 home loss to Alabama.

While the defeat ended Houston’s run at a perfect season, it did little to impact the Cougars’ position in the national championship odds market, at least at BetMGM. The sportsbook moved Houston (9-1, 7-3 ATS) from +700 last week to +750.

That’s still a big improvement from the school’s odds of +2000 when lines opened at the end of last season. In fact, nine teams had with shorter odds than the Cougars to win it all back then.

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Duke (+800) was the only school to open with single-digit national title odds at BetMGM. The Blue Devils were followed by Kentucky and Arkansas (+1000), then Gonzaga and defending national champ Kansas (+1200).

The team the Jayhawks defeated in last year’s championship game, North Carolina, was tied for sixth with Baylor and UCLA at +1400, just ahead of Villanova (+1600).

Then came Houston, Arizona and Michigan (all at +2000).

Months later, though, the national championship odds picture has seen more shuffling than a six-deck shoe at a blackjack table.

All nine teams that opened with odds of +1600 or lower have seen those odds lengthened. Only Kentucky (7-2, 4-5 ATS), Baylor (7-2, 5-4 ATS) and Gonzaga (7-3, 3-7 ATS) are still among the top eight favorites at BetMGM.

The Wildcats and Bears are tied for fourth (+1200), while Gonzaga is tied with Arizona and Purdue for fifth (+1600).

Among the dozen teams that opened with odds of +2000 or better to win the 2022-23 college basketball national championship, none has experienced a more precipitous drop than Villanova.

The Wildcats (5-5, 3-7 ATS) blitzed La Salle 81-68 in the season opener, then lost five of its next six games. On the bright side, Villanova is 3-0 in December with home wins over Oklahoma, Penn and Boston College. Still, the Wildcats are now a +10000 national title long shot.

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Of course, Villanova isn’t the only school that has slid down college basketball’s championship odds board after opening among the favorites. The others: Duke (10-2, 6-6 ATS) has dipped to +1800; North Carolina (6-4, 2-8 ATS) and UCLA (8-2, 5-5 ATS) are down to +2000; and Kansas (9-1, 4-6 ATS) and Arkansas (9-1, 5-4-1 ATS) are out to +2200, along with Tennessee (9-1, 6-4 ATS).

Finally, Michigan — which opened with the same odds as Houston and Arizona — is now down to 24th. The Wolverines (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are tied with Big Ten rival Maryland at +6600.

Houston no doubt has made a big leap from tied for 10th on BetMGM’s odds board to the unquestioned favorite. However, no squad has made a more dramatic charge than UConn.

The Huskies (11-0, 10-1 ATS) have moved from preseason odds of +6600 to win the title to the co-second choice behind Houston at +1100. Texas (7-1, 4-4 ATS) also sits second at +1100 after opening +4000.

Purdue (10-0, 4-6 ATS) has made a similar rise, going from +3000 to its current price of +1600. The Boilermakers are tied for sixth in BetMGM’s college basketball odds market with Arizona (8-1, 3-6 ATS) and Gonzaga.

Other notable movers up the odds board: Virginia from +5000 to +2000; Creighton from +10000 to +2500; Indiana from +6600 to +2500; and Illinois from +5000 to +3000.

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Call it coincidental or recency bias, but last year’s two national championship participants — Kansas and North Carolina — rank 1-2 in national title ticket count at BetMGM.

As of Monday morning, 8.9% of all wagers placed at the book are on the defending champs, while 7.7% are on the Tar Heels.

Houston (7.3%) is right behind North Carolina on the wagers front. However, more money has been bet on the Cougars at BetMGM (11.8%) than another school. Kansas (10.2%) is second in money followed by North Carolina (9.6%), while Kentucky sits fourth in both tickets (5.8%) and money (6.9%).

Arizona is tied with Michigan State for eighth in tickets (4.1%), but the West Coast Wildcats are fifth in handle (5.8%).

Oddly enough, although roughly one of every eight dollars wagered at BetMGM is on Houston to win the school’s first national championship, the book reports that the Cougars are not their biggest liability. That honor goes to Kansas, followed by North Carolina.

The other team BetMGM doesn’t want to see cut down the nets in Houston on April 3: Indiana. The Hoosiers are tied for fifth in tickets (5.1%) and are sixth in handle (5.4%), but third in liability.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.