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NCAAF Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes odds, prediction and picks

The Action Network’s Michael Arinze sees the Buckeyes as an overwhelming favorite on Saturday against the Fighting Irish

Action Network Use Only - COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 20: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Ohio State Buckeyes leaves the field after a 56-7 win over the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium on November 20, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Action Network Use Only - COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 20: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Ohio State Buckeyes leaves the field after a 56-7 win over the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium on November 20, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)Read moreGregory Shamus / Getty Images

With Ohio Stadium celebrating its 100th anniversary on Saturday night, there’s no better way to commemorate the occasion than opening the season with the Fighting Irish coming to the Horseshoe.

Both programs are no strangers to having high expectations. Ohio State is currently second in the AP Top 25 rankings, while the Irish are a few rungs below at No. 5. Yet, the bookmakers see the two teams even further apart after opening Ohio State as a 14-point favorite back in May.

That number is settling at around 16 after being bet up as high as 18 earlier in the week. Let’s dig into the matchup and assess which side offers value at the current price.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Moneyline: ND (+520) vs. OSU (-750)

Spread: ND +15.5 (-105) vs. OSU -15.5 (-115)

Total: Over 59.5 (-106) | Under 59.5 (-114)

Fighting Irish vs. Buckeyes prediction

Turnover at the college level can play a massive role when handicapping games, but changes within the coaching ranks can be just as impactful.

Notre Dame has a new head coach in Marcus Freeman. Freeman served as Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator under former head coach Brian Kelly. And when Kelly tried to lure Freeman to join him at LSU, Notre Dame moved swiftly to promote the coordinator to head coach.

Freeman already has one game under his belt as he coached Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State.

The Fighting Irish started well in the game, taking a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, which improved to a 28-7 lead in the second quarter. But the Cowboys stormed back with 30 unanswered points and held on to win 37-35.

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It was an uncharacteristic performance for a Notre Dame defense that ranked tenth in the nation in points allowed (18.3 per game) during the regular season.

Offensively, Oklahoma State ranked 32nd in scoring with 31.7 points per game. And as impressive as those numbers might be, they pale in comparison to an Ohio State team that led the country in scoring with 45.7 points per game.

According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Buckeyes are tied for 27th (71%) in returning production, whereas Notre Dame is a bit lower down the list at 46th with 66%.

Thus, given their edge in returning players, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Notre Dame slows down this high-powered Ohio State offense.

Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud is arguably the best player in the country. The junior threw for 4,435 yards with a 44:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In contrast, Notre Dame will start a sophomore in Tyler Buchner, who has attempted only 35 passes at the college level.

I ran my projections for this game using various models, and I have the Buckeyes anywhere from a 17-point to 19-point favorite. That range offers me enough value to back the home team at the current price.

Fighting Irish vs. Buckeyes pick

Ohio State -15.5

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