Minnesota vs. Penn State odds, prediction: Are the Nittany Lions a vulnerable favorite?

Penn State’s season was always going to come down to this current three-game stretch against Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions looked terrific during their five-game winning streak to start the campaign, but the quality of competition was pretty soft, especially with what we now know about Auburn.

Even if the schedule was relatively soft, the Nittany Lions gave no real reasons to be all that concerned that a trip to the Big House to take on Michigan was too tall of a mountain for them to climb. Oddsmakers agreed, as Penn State closed as a 7-point underdog on the road. When you adjust for home-field advantage, you’d be looking at Michigan -3.5 (or thereabouts) at a neutral venue against the Nittany Lions. That’s a lot of respect for a team that came into the season with relatively muted expectations.

Penn State would falter in a 41-17 blowout loss and now needs home wins over Minnesota and Ohio State to have even a slight chance of winning the Big Ten East. The Nittany Lions are 4.5-point favorites over the Golden Gophers on Saturday night.

Minnesota +4.5 (Caesars)

The first thing that needs to be noted for this game is that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan is questionable after taking a big hit in the Golden Gophers’ loss to Illinois last Saturday. Keep an eye out for Morgan’s status and adjust accordingly.

Assuming Morgan is in, the Golden Gophers match up pretty well against this Nittany Lion defense. Not only does Minnesota boast one of the best ground attacks in the country, ranking 4th in rushing success rate and 7th in line yards, the Golden Gophers are efficient through the air (11th in passing success rate) and do a great job of capping off drives with points (16th in finishing drives).

Penn State’s defense failed its first true test of the season against Michigan, allowing 339 yards on the ground, and it could be in for a long day on Saturday as long as Morgan is in and the Nittany Lions can’t load up in the box against a No. 2 quarterback.

» READ MORE: Penn State vs Minnesota preview: Nittany Lions to cover in second straight White Out game?

On the season, Penn State sits 86th in rushing success rate allowed, 90th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 113th in terms of a tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus.

Though not an elite unit, the Golden Gophers are no pushovers on defense either. They currently rank 25th in rushing success rate, 46th in line yards, 25th in tackling and are graded as the fourth-best coverage team in the nation, per PFF. It won’t be an easy day for the Penn State offense, which ranks 116th in rushing success rate and 64th in passing success rate.

Morgan’s status looms large over this contest, but if he’s good to go then there’s plenty of value on the Golden Gophers at +4.5 and a play on the moneyline (+180) is definitely worth consideration.

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