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Penn State vs. Indiana odds, predictions: Bet on Nittany Lions to bounce back

Despite possible Ohio State hangover and QB controversy, Penn State should blow out slumping Indiana

Penn State senior quarterback Sean Clifford threw three touchdown passes but also committed four turnovers in last week's home loss to Ohio State. As a result, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said this week he's considering a quarterback change for Saturday's game at Indiana. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Penn State senior quarterback Sean Clifford threw three touchdown passes but also committed four turnovers in last week's home loss to Ohio State. As a result, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said this week he's considering a quarterback change for Saturday's game at Indiana. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)Read moreScott Taetsch / Getty Images

A week ago, Penn State was in prime position to score arguably the biggest upset of the college football season to date, taking a 21-16 lead over No. 2 Ohio State with less than 9½ minutes to play at Beaver Stadium.

And then … the bottom fell out. Ohio State scored four touchdowns in barely six minutes and romped to a 44-31 victory.

So for the second time in three weeks, the Nittany Lions find themselves in the difficult position of having to bounce back seven days after a crushing defeat. They pulled it off the first time, following a 41-17 defeat at Michigan with a 45-17 beat-down of Minnesota.

Can they do it again? Oddsmakers certainly believe so, as No. 15 Penn State is a near two-touchdown road favorite Saturday at Indiana. Should you lay those big points and bank on the Nittany Lions covering the spread for a third straight week? Or back the Hoosiers, who have lost five in a row but are coming off a bye?

Here’s how we’re betting Penn State vs. Indiana, which kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Note: Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Nov. 4.

Penn State vs. Indiana Prediction

  1. Penn State -13.5 (at Caesars Sportsbook)

Penn State vs. Indiana Prediction: Analysis

The situation suggests the smart play in this Big Ten battle is on the home underdog.

It’s very likely the Nittany Lions are still licking their wounds after letting last week’s game against the Buckeyes get away. It was a defeat far more painful than the one at Michigan, a game that quickly got away from Penn State early in the second half.

Not only were the Nittany Lions playing at home this time, but they matched mighty Ohio State punch for punch until the tide turned on two crushing interceptions by quarterback Sean Clifford (who had four turnovers in all).

Clifford’s uneven performance against the Buckeyes — the four turnovers overshadowed his 371 passing yards and three TDs — had Penn State coach James Franklin admitting this week that he’s considering benching his sixth-year senior quarterback for true freshman Drew Allar.

That such a thought is even in Franklin’s head is telling. Whether he’s serious or just trying to light a fire under Clifford, talk of replacing a respected senior quarterback can fracture a locker room. It also makes bettors uneasy about laying nearly touchdowns on the road, especially against a conference rival coming off a bye.

Yet, it’s simply impossible to play Indiana right now.

Not only have the Hoosiers followed up a three-game winning streak with five straight defeats, but they lost their No. 1 wide receiver (Cam Camper) to an ACL injury in their most recent game. And that recent game was a 24-17 loss at lowly Rutgers, which is otherwise 0-4 in Big Ten play, including three losses of 17-plus points.

Even with Camper, Indiana’s offense was sputtering. The Hoosiers have tallied more than 24 points just once during their losing skid (38-33 home loss to Maryland). Meanwhile, the defense has gotten torched for 30-plus points in five of the last six games (an average of 33.8 per contest).

Penn State’s offense has had two duds all season: the 17 points at Michigan (which fields arguably the best defense in the country) and 17 against Northwestern. Likewise, the Lions’ defense has no-showed just twice — against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams sitting in the Top 5 of in the newly released College Football Playoff rankings.

So even though we’re a bit concerned about a few things — Penn State’s post-Ohio State mindset, Franklin’s quarterback comments, wet and windy conditions, and the fact Indiana is 2-0 ATS as a double-digit home underdog — we’ll still side with the team that has much more talent. And the team that is 23-2 all time in this rivalry.

Lay the points with Penn State at Caesars Sportsbook.

Penn State vs. Indiana Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook):

  1. Point spread: Penn State (-13.5) @ Indiana (+13.5)

  2. Moneyline: Penn State (-600) @ Indiana (+430)

  3. Total: 49.5

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