Bet on red hot Creighton to keep rolling against Villanova in Saturday’s Big East matchup

I expected Villanova to beat Seton Hall on the road this past Wednesday.

But the Wildcats collapsed after a hot start, getting out-scored 51-37 over the game’s final 30 minutes in a 10-point loss.

With that, Villanova fell to 10-9 in Big East play, tied with St. John’s and Providence for fifth in the conference.

Meanwhile, Creighton’s surged down the stretch, picking up two games on Marquette in the standings following Tyler Kolek’s injury. The Bluejays have won six of seven.

Creighton blew a 14-point second-half lead at home against Villanova in the first meeting, ultimately losing in overtime.

With revenge in mind, I expect the red-hot Bluejays to play with fire and intensity in a solid road victory.

(2:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

Villanova runs a compact, interior-based defense that switches and underscreens everything on the perimeter. The result is a high 3-point rate allowed, as the Wildcats allow the 40th-most triples per game nationally (25).

Normally, that’s a death sentence against Creighton, which utilizes off-ball perimeter screens to pop open deadeye shooters like Baylor Scheierman (38% from 3 this year), Steven Ashworth (35%) and Trey Alexander (32%).

But the Wildcats got lucky in the first meeting. Despite 13 of Creighton’s 18 catch-and-shoot opportunities coming unguarded, the Bluejays shot just 5-for-24 (21%) from 3.

I don’t expect that to happen again, and I expect Creighton’s 3-point luck to flip in a huge road victory with the second seed in the Big East tournament on the line.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Conversely, Villanova runs a perimeter-oriented offense on the other side of the court, ranking second in the Big East in 3-point rate.

But Creighton runs a drop-coverage defensive scheme, overplaying ball-handlers and wing shooters on the perimeter and funneling them toward 7-foot-2 center Ryan Kalkbrenner, who sags deep in the paint to protect the rim.

This forces opposing offenses to create on-ball and in the mid-range, with Creighton leading the nation in Rim-and-3 rate allowed, forcing opponents into the mid-range area on 32% of possessions.

Villanova doesn’t have many on-ball dribble creators, and the Wildcats are very uncomfortable in the mid-range area, ranking 316th nationally in mid-range frequency.

Honestly, it’s a nightmare matchup for Villanova, and the Wildcats only overcame that in the December matchup because Creighton went cold from deep with 15 minutes left and blew a double-digit lead.

Once the shooting variance stabilizes, Creighton should build and hold a double-digit second-half lead at Finneran Pavilion.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.