MLB preview: Dodgers vs. Mets odds, prediction and picks

The Mets continue their series against the Dodgers in what could be a preview of the NLCS this October. New York lost the series opener, 4-3, and has now failed to score more than three runs in its past three games.

Mets ace Jacob deGrom will try to get back in the win column, and Dodgers’ southpaw Tyler Anderson will oppose him.

We’re used to seeing deGrom as an overwhelming favorite, but the Mets are priced as high as -167 against a Dodgers team that leads Major League Baseball with 90 wins this season.

Do the Mets deserve to lay such a high price?

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Moneyline: LAD (+136) vs. NYM (-162)

Spread: LAD +1.5 (-170) vs. NYM -1.5 (+140)

Total: Over 6.5 (-118) | Under 6.5 (-104)

» READ MORE: Can favored Phillies avoid a sweep in Arizona? It doesn't look great.

Tyler Anderson (13-2, 2.69 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.15 ERA)

Despite winning 82 games and being in first place in the NL East, the New York Mets still can’t create much breathing room with the Atlanta Braves just three games behind.

Frankly, the NL East would look very different if the Braves weren’t mired in a three-game losing streak. And while this division is far from over, if the Mets can get past this series with the Dodgers, they should be able to manage the rest of the way. They have the softest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com.

This series isn’t a litmus test should these two teams meet in the postseason. I think the Mets’ first objective is winning the division before anything else. And while it’s worth noting that New York hasn’t had much success against the Dodgers, neither have most teams.

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The Dodgers have won 25 of their last 32 road games against the Mets. Despite owning a 19.5-game lead in the NL West, there doesn’t seem to be any letting up with this team.

Los Angeles is a staggering +287 in run differential this season, so it’s no surprise they lead baseball with a wRC+ value of 122. The Dodgers’ ability to score runs makes them an intriguing underdog in this spot.

According to Baseball Savant, Los Angeles’ current lineup has the edge in the batter vs. pitcher splits as the Dodgers are hitting .246 with a .314 wOBA and .475 xSLG in 187 plate appearances against deGrom.

In contrast, New York has a .222 average with a .261 wOBA and .369 xSLG in 75 plate appearances against Anderson. Moreover, the Mets have a .241 / .318 / .384 split vs. lefties compared to a .264 / .333 / .417 line against right-handers.

» READ MORE: Eagles over 9.5 wins? Their schedule might make the extra juice worth it.

The Mets have a history of not giving deGrom enough run support in his starts, and seeing that scenario play out on Wednesday wouldn’t surprise me.

According to our ActionLabs database, you’d have to go back to July 13th, 2019 to find the last time the Dodgers opened as underdogs at +130 or higher. And in their previous eight games in this spot, the Dodgers are 6-2 for a profit of 7.02 units.

My model makes the Mets no more than a -120 favorite, so I’ll take the value with the road underdogs at +136.

Dodgers ML +136

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