English Premier League odds, predictions: Two bets for Sunday’s slate

Saturday’s Premier League slate is behind us and bettors can now turn their attention to Sunday’s card.

Although limited, the two games on Sunday’s card promise great potential in terms of overall quality. To begin the day, Brighton & Hove Albion welcomes Leicester City to the south coast as the Seagulls look to resign Leicester to another defeat. Then, in the marquee match of the weekend, Arsenal travels to Old Trafford for a clash with Manchester United, which is looking for its fourth consecutive victory.

How should bettors target these two fixtures? Here are my two best bets for the Sunday action. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

I hate to keep fading the Foxes, but Brighton has played so impressively in the early goings this season.

Entering Sunday, the Seagulls are both a positive regression candidate — +3 goal differential on a +8 big scoring chances differential — and own the second-best big scoring chances differential in the English top-flight.

Additionally, Brighton — which is widely regarded as a superior defensive side — has seen its attacking come roaring out of the gate. Through five matches, manager Graham Potter’s side has generated the fourth-most expected goals in the league and sits tied for fifth league-wide in total big scoring chances.

Now, Brighton gets a Leicester City defense that has looked atrocious through its first five matches. Entering this match, manager Brendan Rodgers’s side has conceded 14 big scoring chances, a mark that is good for T-18th in the Premier League.

Lastly, Brighton has established itself as a top home team in recent memory. Across its last 21 home Premier League fixtures, Brighton has a +6 expected goal differential and has a +0.25 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Add in that it won this exact fixture against the Foxes last season and I’ll back the hosts up to -130.

» READ MORE: UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Our two best longshot futures bets

Time to sell high on the Manchester United defense, which should crumble against a real attack.

The Red Devils have kept two consecutive clean sheets against Southampton and Leicester City, but have conceded two big scoring chances in those matches. Additionally, two of the last three matches have seen manager Erik ten Hag’s squad allow the opponent to have 47 or more touches in United’s penalty area. That’s not good.

Plus, United encountered plenty of struggles last season against Arsenal. Across both meetings, manager Mikel Arteta’s squad generated 4.53 expected goals and four big scoring chances against the Manchester United defense, which hasn’t improved substantially enough to suggest that will change.

Arsenal’s attack has established itself as an impeccable unit. In five matches, it has generated three big scoring chances per match and sits second league-wide in total expected goals, per fotmob.com. Furthermore, Arsenal ranks second in the English top flight in terms of shots on target per 90 minutes while United rank 13th in the corresponding defensive metric.

For those reasons, play the Arsenal team total up to even money Sunday at Old Trafford.

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