Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Our two best longshot futures bets
The Action Network's Nick Hennion provides his two best longshot futures bets for the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
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The UEFA Champions League begins in exactly one week, which leaves us one final opportunity to evaluate the competition’s futures board.
As it stands, Manchester City (+240) is the favorite to win this year’s competition and is followed closely by Paris Saint-Germain (+550), Liverpool (+600), Bayern Munich (+700) and last year’s champion, Real Madrid (+1000).
However, we’re not here to focus on the top of the odds board. Rather, I’m here to provide my favorite longshot bets to make a deep run and (potentially) win the competition. With that in mind, let’s get right to the picks. Odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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Best Bet No. 1 - AC Milan (+6500)
Last year’s draw handed Milan an extremely difficult group, but this year’s group is much more favorable.
Although it’s unlikely that the defending Serie A champions will win the group — that honor belongs to Chelsea — I expect Milan will be able to do no worse than second in this group. As much as I like Red Bull Salzburg as a trendy underdog pick in individual games, I rate Milan a step above over a six-game sample.
Beyond that, my interest in Milan lies in the fact it was a very balanced side last season. In its title-winning campaign, the Rossoneri finished with the second-best expected goal differential — fourth in expected goals for, second in expected goals against, per fbref.com. Plus, Milan generated at least 1.5 expected goals in half of its 38 domestic fixtures and conceded under one expected goal in 22 of 38 fixtures.
That tells me this Milan side is capable of winning games in multiple different styles and doesn’t have to rely on a single unit to excel.
Further, this Milan squad posted an outstanding record in league matches against top-tier opposition. In 14 matches against the seven sides immediately below it in the final table, Milan was 9-2-3 (W-L-D) and had a +8.5 expected goal differential on a +10 actual goal differential in those matches, per fbref.com.
With manager Stefano Pioli’s side off to a promising start in the league this year, I’ll take a shot with Milan at anything better than 55/1.
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Best Bet No. 2 - RB Leipzig (+9500)
Just from a price perspective, this is probably my favorite future for the Champions League.
Let’s not forget this was a team that, albeit in a revised format, reached the semi-finals of this competition in the 2019-20 edition. This summer, Leipzig added former talisman Timo Werner to the fold and should bring a high-flying offense that the Champions League usually requires.
Plus, despite getting off to a slow start in the Bundesliga record-wise, Leipzig owns the second-best expected goal differential in the league through its first four matches. Potentially even more inspiring is that Leipzig’s defense, which it usually isn’t known for, has conceded the fewest expected goals against in the Bundesliga.
» READ MORE: UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Group draw reaction, early bets
In terms of its group draw, Leipzig received some fortune a season after drawing a group that included both Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain. Like Milan, I’ll be surprised if Leipzig manage to win a Group F that is headlined by UCL title-holders Real Madrid, but fellow Group F sides Celtic and Shakhtar aren’t exactly the most intimidating.
Assuming Leipzig can win three of four against those two teams, I rate it very likely to reach the knockouts. If that ends up being the case, manager Domenico Tedesco certainly has the offense to give the top-tier sides trouble and make another deep run.
Play Die Roten Bullen at 80/1 or better.
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