Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard
Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.

Presidents Cup Day 1 prediction: Is Team USA vulnerable on Day 1?

The Internationals are worth a look as +300 underdogs on Thursday

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 20: Hideki Matsuyama of Japan and the International Team is interviewed during a press conference prior to the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Country Club on September 20, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 20: Hideki Matsuyama of Japan and the International Team is interviewed during a press conference prior to the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Country Club on September 20, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)Read moreWarren Little / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

In terms of talent and depth, the gap between Team USA and the Internationals at this year’s Presidents Cup is quite wide. While the Americans could cope with losing players like Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau to the LIV Tour, the gap between the Internationals top defectors (Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann and Abe Ancer) and their replacements is quite stark.

Had Trevor Immelman had Smith and Niemann to play at the top of his roster with Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im, you could almost see a path to success for the underdogs. But with the current roster, it’s hard to imagine this going any way other than Team USA pulling away over the course of the weekend.

  1. Get your BetMGM Bonus Code

  2. Read about the Best Sports Betting Sites

Presidents Cup Day 1 Pick: Team International (+300, BetMGM)

As noted above, there’s very little that will suggest that the Internationals have a chance to compete with Team USA in this event. The Americans are -700 favorites (87.5% implied win probability) to lift the trophy and the spread is -6.5 points (30 matches, each match is worth a point).

But just because the Americans are a huge favorite doesn’t mean they’ll just storm their way to the trophy. In fact, there’s a chance that Day 1 provides a bit of a hurdle as players get used to the format and try to get into rhythm.

Chaos and variance are usually good things for underdogs and the opening day of the Presidents Cup is ripe for both, so, if you’re going to get down on the Internationals the best time to do so is right out of the gates.

» READ MORE: 2022 Presidents Cup odds and preview: Team USA a massive favorite

Part of the strategy here is about rust. A good portion of players on both sides of the competition haven’t played in a month, which could lead to some funky results.

And the other factor is that Thursday’s format is ripe for variance, with the teams playing five foursomes worth one point each. In each match, two players from each team are partners and play an alternate shot format.

When it comes to events like the Presidents Cup, raw handicapping and game theory plays just as much a role in finding value as the numbers do. And while Team USA is still a worthy favorite to be the Day 1 winner, the format and situational spot opens up a path for the Internationals to get out to an early lead at a good price.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.