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World Cup predictions, picks: Japan vs. Croatia

Check out our betting preview for Monday's World Cup match between Japan and Croatia.

Japanese midfielder Ritsu Doan reacts after the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group E football match between Japan and Spain at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha on December 1, 2022. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (Photo by JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images)
Japanese midfielder Ritsu Doan reacts after the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group E football match between Japan and Spain at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha on December 1, 2022. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (Photo by JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images)Read moreJEWEL SAMAD / AFP via Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Perhaps no team has caused more of a stir at the 2022 World Cup than Japan. Samurai Blue bookended a brutal defeat to Costa Rica with stunning upsets against Germany and Spain to top Group E in the most absurd fashion.

Japan now turns its sights onto another European power, Croatia, in the Round of 16 on Monday morning.

Samurai Blue is a +300 underdog on the three-way moneyline and is +154 to advance.

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Japan vs. Croatia prediction: Pick

  1. Japan to advance +154 (FanDuel)

Japan vs. Croatia prediction: Analysis

As we’ve already seen in this tournament, Japan can beat anybody and lose to anybody on any given day. In their performances against Germany and Spain, Samurai Blue sat back and waited for their moments, but against Costa Rica it was Japan that had most of the ball and it was clear that was a role they were not all that comfortable playing.

But against Croatia, a team that profiles similarly to Spain in the fact that they want to be on the ball and let their midfield control the tempo, Japan should be able to play their preferred style, which is to cause turnovers high up the pitch and spring counterattacks to create their best scoring chances.

And if Japan can pull off that high-wire act against Germany and Spain -- two of the best teams in this field -- they should be able to compete with Croatia, who are not in the same tier as either Die Mannschaft or La Furia Roja.

» READ MORE: World Cup 2022: Latest odds to win the tournament

Croatia’s best path to success is for the 37-year-old Luka Modric to control the game, but his influence can be muted against a Japanese team that should put a ton of pressure on the ball and make this a frenetic, frenzied encounter. That will not sit well with the Checkered Ones, who are a technically gifted, but slow-moving team. Croatia wants this game to stay on script, but as we’ve seen in all three of their matches, you can just shred the script when it comes to Japan.

Even though they progressed in a competitive group featuring Morocco, Belgium and Canada, Croatia have really looked pedestrian outside of their 4-1 dismantling of the Canadians. This contest is much closer to a coin flip than these odds suggest and Samurai Blue have already shown they’re not an underdog you can take lightly.

Back the Japanese to add Croatia to their list of upsets on Monday.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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