Bet on Lakers to cover spread as underdogs in NBA Play-In Tournament matchup against Pelicans

By finishing eighth in the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers will have two chances to advance to the main draw of the NBA playoffs.

But first, they will have to defeat the New Orleans Pelicans on the road for the second time in as many games. This will be the fifth meeting between the two teams this season, with the previous four decided by 16 or more points.

Los Angeles went 3-1 in the season series, and a closer look reveals that the Lakers have successfully exploited a distinct edge in this matchup.

If not for the competitiveness in the Western Conference this season, the Lakers would likely have finished in the top six. After all, two teams in the East, Orlando and Indiana, finished fifth and sixth with the same record (47-35) as Los Angeles.

The problem with the Lakers is they tend to look mediocre at times.

When you examine all the teams in the league that finished the season with a winning record, Los Angeles had the worst net rating (+0.6). Even the Rockets, who finished at .500, have a better net rating (+0.9) than the Lakers.

Thus, they can be a frustrating team to watch at times, but they’re a bit of a chameleon when you start to peel back the layers.

Based on their metrics, the Lakers rank in the middle of the pack in offense (15th) and defense (17th). They’re not an aggressive team from beyond the arc, ranking dead last in 3-point attempts (31.1) and 24th in 3-point field goals (11.7).

However, their field goal percentage of 37.6% when shooting from the perimeter ranks eighth in the league.

Across the four meetings, Los Angeles made 52 3-pointers compared to 50 for New Orleans. Therefore, the Lakers are much more of an adaptable team than the underlying data suggests.

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There will be plenty of talk about the Pelicans making the necessary changes in this play-in tournament. But while losing the perimeter battle throughout the series, they also got dominated inside the paint in each game.

While the numbers might point to the Pelicans being an excellent defensive team on the interior, ranking fifth with 46.6 points allowed, the Lakers outscored them 238-190 inside the paint.

This is a clear warning sign if your opponent can turn something that’s a strength into a weakness.

New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas has become such a liability in the paint against Anthony Davis that he only played seven minutes in the last meeting.

Coach Willie Green was willing to try just about anything, including a smaller lineup and having Zion Williamson play the center position. That strategy also proved to be widely ineffective.

The question for New Orleans is whether it has anyone on the roster who can keep Davis in check.

The Pelicans have had four games to put together a game plan to slow Davis down, and they still don’t seem to have an answer.

There’s an interesting narrative about how a Lakers’ loss wouldn’t be so bad because it would give them a chance at the eighth seed and a matchup against a Thunder team they defeated in three of the four meetings during the year.

However, that would mean the Lakers would have to face either the Kings or Warriors, who went 7-1 against L.A. this season.

With so much on the line, the time to manipulate the seedings to your advantage is long gone. The most important thing at this point is to qualify for the first round of the playoffs.

Los Angeles is at its best when it recognizes favorable matchups. Since the Pelicans fit that criteria, the Lakers are worth a look as 1.5-point underdogs.

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