Back the Kings to upset the Warriors in loser goes home game Tuesday

The Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors in a loser goes home matchup Tuesday. These teams both finished 46-36 an split the season series 2-2. Sportsbook favor the Warriors in this game, but my pick is the Kings moneyline on Caesars Sportsbook (+122).

Both teams are mostly healthy with the exceptions of Gary Payton II and Malik Monk. Of the two, Monk’s absence holds more weight as he’s the third leading scorer on the team and shot 43.8 percent from deep against the Warriors this year.

if you haven’t followed these teams that closely since last postseason, you may be wondering how these star-studded teams got here. While the Kings just couldn’t find enough wins against the loaded West, Golden State had many reasons hurting their record.

Steph Curry put up another elite season of 26.4 points per game on 40.8 percent shooting from three. But Andrew Wiggins had the worst season in his career, Klay Thompson averaged his fewest points since 2012, and Draymond Green missed 27 games.

Despite those issues, the Warriors saw the likes of Jonathan Kumbinga and Moses Moody improve. Rookies Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski proved fantastic finds as well. The Warriors finished eighth in points per game and seventh in three point percentage.

As for the Kings, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong. Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in triple doubles and De’Aaron Fox averaged a career high in points. Their bench finished a respectable 12th in scoring. In general, this team had good health all year.

Keegan Murray was the x-factor in last year’s postseason, but his drop from 41.4 to 35.8 percent three point shooting this year stands out given how much is asked of him. The Kings finished ninth in points per game but just 16th in three point percentage.

Sabonis is the biggest reason I’m backing the Kings. He’ll look to make a statement after struggling mightily last postseason. This is the best version of Sabonis we’ve ever seen. He led the NBA in rebounds while dishing out the sixth most assists and averaging 19.4 points.

While Jackson-Davis is a talent I like who has filled a hole in the Warriors lineup, I think Sabonis dominates him. Green is one of the elite defenders in the sport, but I don’t think he’ll fair much better with being four inches smaller than Sabonis.

I see the Warriors trying to double Sabonis with Green helping out. But Sabonis is such an elite passer for a big man that there will be open shots for his teammates. Without Monk, the honus will fall on Murray and Harrison Barnes to convert those much needed shots.

The Kings and Warriors rank 14th and 15th respectively in defensive ratings, so we know both teams will get offense up. But I’m not sold on Thompson and Wiggins being able to shoot efficiently enough to complement Curry, who should have an electrifying performance.

Even if the Kings win like I predict they will, this could be the last game of the Warriors dynasty as we’ve known them. So expect them to give maximum effort and keep it close in what should be a must-see game of the highest drama and stakes.

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