Back a big performance by Mavericks center Daniel Gafford vs Timberwolves in Game 1 of WCF

The Western Conference finals tip off on Wednesday night with the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Dallas Mavericks.

While Minnesota opened as a 4.5-point favorite, the market seems somewhat split on what the point spread should be. Roughly half the sportsbooks have held steady at the opening number, while the others have dropped the Timberwolves to -4.

There is much more consensus regarding the total, which opened at 205.5. That number is now up across the board, with some sportsbooks moving it up as high as 207.5.

These teams met four times during the regular season, with Minnesota winning the series 3-1. However, a closer look reveals that those results might not necessarily reflect what bettors should expect in this series.

Odds via DraftKings

Dallas was rarely at full strength against Minnesota this season. Guard Kyrie Irving was inactive in two of the early losses, while leading scorer Luka Doncic missed one of the games.

The teams then met on the final day of the regular season, with Minnesota defeating Dallas 121-87. However, with the Mavericks already locked into the fifth seed, they opted to rest all of their starters since it was essentially a meaningless game.

In addition to never beating the Mavericks when they were at full strength, Minnesota has yet to face this retooled Dallas team that added forward P.J. Washington (Charlotte) and center Daniel Gafford (Washington) to its frontcourt.

Adding Washington and Gafford strengthened the Mavericks, giving them two versatile players who can protect the rim and defend on the perimeter.

As a result, the Mavericks improved from 22nd in defensive efficiency without Washington and Gafford to seventh following the trade deadline.

» READ MORE: Bet on a long series between the Mavericks and Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals

The Timberwolves rode their defense to rally from a 20-point deficit in Game 7 of the second round against the 2023 champion Nuggets. Minnesota limited Denver to 37 second-half points on 14-of-39 shooting (35.9%) and 4-of-21 (21%) from the perimeter.

Denver’s performance was reminiscent of a heavyweight boxer who scored an early knockdown but punched himself out of the fight by the sixth round. The Nuggets were gassed as the game wore on, and when they turned to their bench, they scored only five points.

Given the potential physicality in this series, bench scoring will be particularly crucial. Dallas ranks fifth (24.5) in bench scoring during this postseason, compared to Denver, which is 15th (14.8). The Mavericks will need their bench if they want to play the game at a fast pace.

While the Timberwolves are the NBA’s best team defensively, they finished 17th (114.6) in offensive efficiency, while the Mavericks ranked eighth (117.0).

Thus, Minnesota’s offense might get a bit exposed in a game with more possessions.

We almost have to completely disregard the Timberwolves’ regular-season series win over Dallas. That’s why I prefer to treat this opener as a fact-finding mission while pivoting to a player prop for my best bet in Game 1.

Gafford’s points plus assists is available at 9.5, and that feels a bit short considering the Dallas center exceeded this number in all six contests against the Thunder, and this streak is on a seven-game run. Moreover, he’s scored in double figures in five of his past seven games while registering at least one assist in five of his last six.

The Mavericks’ frontcourt players will be particularly key in this matchup, as Minnesota will try to take the ball out of Doncic’s hands as much as possible. Doncic had plenty of success finding the open man in the previous series as opposing defenders tried to double him on his drive attempts.

Thus, there should be chances for Gafford to have scoring opportunities inside the paint.

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