MLB preview: Dodgers vs. Mets odds, prediction and picks

I was on the wrong side of a Mets victory Wednesday as they rode the back of their ace Jacob deGrom, who scattered three hits in seven innings while allowing just one run.

A two-run home run in the third inning from Mets outfielder Starling Marte was all the Mets would need to seal the win. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson was also solid, matching deGrom with seven innings of work.

But the real story in the game might’ve been Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo robbing Justin Turner of a game-tying home run in the seventh. Who knows if the Mets will still pull off the victory if Nimmo doesn’t make that catch?

The first two games of the series have been decided by one run, with each team winning one. The teams play again Thursday afternoon with the season series also on the line as each team has won three games apiece.

In baseball, momentum is often regarded as the next day’s pitcher. Although, after yesterday’s impressive win, you can’t help but wonder if we could be on the cusp of something special in Queens.

Let’s dig into the Thursday matchup.

Moneyline: LAD (-138) vs. NYM (+118)

Spread: LAD -1.5 (+120) vs. NYM +1.5 (-144)

Total: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (-112)

Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.64 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (11-7, 3.34 ERA)

As much as I liked the Dodgers on Wednesday, I plan to go in the other direction on Thursday when they send out Clayton Kershaw for his first start in 28 days.

The Dodgers will activate Kershaw after the future Hall of Famer landed on the IL with pain in his lower back during a start against the Giants. Kershaw will step right into a high-intensity game in an uproarious environment on the road.

New York will counter with Chris Bassitt, who has pitched very well lately. The right-hander allowed just six runs in all of August, with the Mets winning all five of his starts. And if you include his final outing in July, the Mets have won each of his past six starts.

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I didn’t think this series had anything to do with the Mets trying to send a message to the Dodgers. But their meetings this season have undoubtedly felt like a back-and-forth seven-game playoff series.

The head-to-head run differential also suggests that these two teams are very close, with Los Angeles (21) outscoring New York (20) by just one run.

I think the Mets know right where they are in this season series against the Dodgers. One thing that could benefit the home side is facing another left-handed starter for a second straight game.

According to the KillerSports database this season, teams facing back-to-back left-handed starters off a win are 67-58 for 5.82 units. And if we isolate our filter to focus on the Mets, they’re 6-2 for 3.45 units when facing a lefty two games in a row.

Given the recent form of both teams, my model has the Dodgers as no more than a -113 favorite and the Mets as +102 underdogs. As a result, I’ll trust the numbers and stake the home team to pull off the win.

Mets ML +118

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