Back the Phillies to take the series against the Cardinals with Aaron Nola on the mound

The Phillies and Cardinals will play their series rubber match early Wednesday afternoon.

Superstar Aaron Nola will face off against the much-maligned Lance Lynn.

While I believe Lynn is undervalued, I’d still prefer Nola.

(Via FanDuel Sportsbook)

(1:15 p.m. ET, BSMW)

Lynn is not as bad as his 5.73 ERA from last year would have you believe. He allowed 44 home runs during 2023, an unsustainable mark more than double any other single-season total he’s allowed during his 13-year career.

Still, Lynn is not a top-of-the-line ace, projecting close to a two-win, 4.5-ERA player.

Nola is not just an ace, he’s a reliable workhorse pitcher who consistently throws over 200 innings with a 3.5 ERA. He pairs a ridiculous knuckle curve (151 Stuff+) with pinpoint location (106 Location+).

He had a tough start to the year, giving up six earned over four innings against the Braves. But the Braves have the best lineup in baseball – that outing is forgiven.

Nola responded by throwing five shutout innings against the Nationals in D.C. I expect more of that pitcher on Wednesday in St. Louis.

So, I give the starting pitching advantage to the Phillies, but I also give them a considerable bullpen advantage.

The Cardinals had to deploy their top three relief arms to protect their 3-0 late-game lead on Tuesday, with Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge throwing 69 combined pitches. Helsley also threw 10 pitches on Monday, so the closer is unlikely to be used here.

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Meanwhile, the Phillies didn’t use any of their top four relief arms in the loss, so Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Greg Soto will all be available here. At its best, this quartet is the anchor of the best bullpen in baseball.

Therefore, I imagine the Phillies will have a pitching advantage across all nine innings on Wednesday.

Comparing the lineups is tougher. Both units have been useless in the early going, with the Phillies posting an 86 wRC+ and the Cardinals a 79, both bottom-10 marks.

However, I think Philly’s offense is bound to explode any day now. Their expected offensive statistics are about 10 points higher than their actual, and you can’t keep Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper down for long.

I’m betting on a solid pitching performance and an improved offensive performance from the Phillies on Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a convincing series victory.

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