Bet on a low strikeout total from Sonny Gray in his Cardinals debut against the Phillies

The Phillies and Cardinals get ready for game two of their series in St. Louis after the Phils closed out a 5-3 victory on Monday.

I don’t love this matchup for either team, but I do see value in fading Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray.

(Via Bet365 Sportsbook)

(7:45 p.m. ET, BSMW)

After posting his best season in five years in 2023 with Minnesota, the 34-year-old Gray earned a three-year contract with the Cardinals this offseason and prepares to make his first start with the team on Tuesday.

Unfortunately, Gray strained his hamstring during spring training, leading to a delayed start to the year as she deals with injury.

So, Gray’s first appearance in Cardinal Red should be short, as his usage will be heavily monitored and limited.

Gray tinkered with his pitch mix over the past few seasons, finally finding a solid cutter-sweeper mix that rocked right-handed batters. He finished 2023 with a 2.79 ERA and 5.3 fWAR across 184 innings.

However, he still isn’t a dominant stuff, whiff, or strikeout guy. Behind league-average whiff (26%) and chase (28%) rates, Gray posted a relatively mediocre 24% strikeout rate across his last two full seasons.

His strikeouts have come almost entirely from usage, as he’s worked six or more innings in half his starts since the beginning of 2022.

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Gray has eclipsed four strikeouts in 66% of his starts during that time, but we can’t expect the same if you limit his usage. He’s thrown under 65 pitches in five starts during that stretch, failing to reach five strikeouts in all five starts.

The Phillies strike out around 23% of the time, above the MLB average.

But, again, Gray isn’t a dominant strikeout guy, and he won’t see many batters in this start. 65 pitches is a very short leash, and he’d need to face maybe 21 or 22 batters to comfortably reach five strikeouts at a 23% or 24% rate, which I don’t expect.

I’m happy to bet Under 4.5 strikeouts at -160 or better, and I’d even consider Under 4 strikeouts at -110 or better.

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