Bet on high scoring series opener between the Rockies and Phillies

After a commanding three-game sweep over Texas, the Phillies have won six straight, nine of their past 10 and 24 of their last 30 games.

They’re the best team in baseball with the best pitching staff in baseball.

However, I expect that staff to struggle on Friday night at Coors Field in our Phillies vs Rockies Odds, Predictions Picks for Friday, May 24.

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

(8:40 p.m., MLB.TV)

I’m a big Cristopher Sanchez fan, today’s starting pitcher for the Phillies.

He has an excellent sinker-changeup mix, which he leverages to force whiffs and ground balls galore – Sanchez combines a 22% strikeout rate with a 61% ground-ball rate.

However, I do think Sanchez is a tad overvalued. His expected ERA (3.73) is nearly a half-run higher than his actual (3.31), as he allows a good amount of hard contact (40% hard-hit rate allowed, 39th percentile).

While he’s a heavy ground-ball pitcher, Sanchez has been getting lucky with home-run avoidance. His 3.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is significantly lower than his career 16% mark. He’s always struggled with the long ball, even in the minors.

So, I expect some negative home-run regression in his future.

As everyone knows, Coors Field is a great place for home-run regression. But the weather report looks even better for hitting, calling for hot and humid conditions with winds blowing out toward left-center field, likely carrying any fly balls.

BallParkPal’s weather model projects a +27% run factor for Friday’s game, including a +16% home-run factor – meaning we should expect 27% more run production and 16% more home-run production than a typical MLB game.

And while the Phillies bullpen is elite, they’re also stretched thin. Their top three highest-leverage relievers have all pitched twice in the past three days, with Jose Alvarado (34 pitches), Jeff Hoffman (38 pitches), and Matt Strahm (20 pitches) all racking up heavy usage.

I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of those guys are unavailable for this series opener, forcing lesser relievers into a high run-scoring environment.

So, while the Rockies offense is among the league’s worst (82 wRC+, 26th), they could scrape together some runs with the wind at their back.

It’s worth mentioning that the Rockies have been much better against left-handed pitching recently, posting a .338 expected wOBA against the side over the past two weeks, the seventh-highest mark among MLB lineups during the stretch.

Furthermore, Colorado ranks eighth among MLB lineups in OPS against southpaw sinker-changeup mixes (.775).

This matchup profiles as a tough one for Sanchez, and the Rockies could score against an exhausted Philadelphia bullpen.

Although Sanchez tossed six innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts against the Rockies in April, lineups generally perform better with more familiarity against a pitcher.

Plus, that start was at home, and Sanchez has significant home-road splits (2.03 ERA in 31 home innings, 5.50 ERA in 18 road innings). He’s never pitched at Coors, so this could be a rude awakening.

In the other dugout, Ty Blach has yet to establish himself as an effective MLB starting pitcher. His cutter was an excellent pitch last season (170 Stuff+), but he’s lost velocity across his arsenal, resulting in declines in his advanced pitch modeling metrics (75 Stuff+ in 2023, 69 in 2024).

The decrease in stuff has led to a significant decrease in whiffs, as Blach is on pace for a career-low strikeout rate (11%) and swinging-strike rate (5.2%).

He can’t miss bats, and he gets hit hard in the zone (41% hard-hit rate, 38th percentile). His sinker-changeup mix was always a lackluster strikeout combination, but things are getting worse.

Altogether, Blach is a replacement-level pitcher with replacement-level earned run indicators (5.14 ERA, 5.44 expected ERA, 4.37 expected FIP).

I don’t see the Phillies red-hot offense slowing down against Blach. They rank fifth among MLB lineups in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (120), a mark that has improved over the past two weeks (126).

And, like Sanchez, Blach is getting lucky with homer avoidance, posting a homer-to-fly-ball rate seven percent lower (4%) than his career average (11%) – he’s only allowed one dinger in 21 innings this season after allowing 15 in 78 innings last season. Between the boosted run environment and the Phillies’ hard-hitting lineup, I wouldn’t be surprised if Blach also sees some negative home-run regression.

Once Blach is pulled, the Phillies bats will go to work against a horrific Rockies bullpen that’s posted a 6.48 ERA and 5.56 SIERA over the past two weeks. During the stretch, Colorado relievers have walked (16.2%) as many batters as they’ve struck out (16.2%) while allowing the league’s eighth-highest fly-ball rate (41%).

Even worse, Colorado’s bullpen is also overextended, with the six highest-leverage relievers all having pitched twice in the past three days.

Ultimately, I expect fireworks on Friday night at Coors. BallParkPal’s model projects 11.7 runs for this game, while the Action Network’s PRO model projects 11.1.

I’ll happily take over 10.5 (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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