MLB preview: Phillies vs. Marlins odds, prediction and picks

The Philadelphia Phillies return home after a disappointing road trip in which they went just 1-5 and were outscored 50-36. Philadelphia’s lead in the wild card race is down to two games over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Next up for the Phillies is the Marlins, who the Phillies will face in six of their next nine games. Both teams come limping into the series. Philadelphia is on a three-game losing streak and Miami has lost seven straight.

The Phillies turn to Aaron Nola to stop the skid and Miami will counter with Jesús Luzardo. I’ll dig into the numbers and share my projections on where the value might lie in this matchup.

Moneyline: MIA (+180) vs. PHI(-225)

Spread: MIA +1.5 (-120) vs. PHI -1.5 (+100)

Total: Over 7 (+105) | Under 7 (-125)

Jesús Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (9-11, 3.43 ERA)

Baseball in the final month can always be tricky with September call-ups and teams playing out the string on losing seasons. Given what we’ve seen from the Marlins of late, the latter could very well apply to them.

In the Marlins’ past eight games, they haven’t scored more than two runs in either contest. And in their past seven head-to-head matchups against the Phillies, they failed to score more than three runs in any game.

Moreover, Miami scored just one run in three of those games and was shut out on two occasions. The Phillies were a dominant 6-1 in those meetings.

It’s tough to get too excited about the Marlins the rest of the way. Their starting pitchers likely deserve a bit better, given that they’re ninth overall with a 3.75 ERA. It’s almost like the Marlins are saving their offense for when their Cy Young favorite, Sandy Alcantara, makes his starts.

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Luzardo, a lefty, is another quality pitcher in the Marlins rotation. His advanced numbers point to further positive regression given his 3.02 FIP and 3.04 xERA. It’s worth noting that the Marlins are 2-0 in Luzardo’s two starts against the Phillies. And in 25 plate appearances against Luzardo, Philadelphia’s lineup is batting .250 with a .281 wOBA and a .263 xSLG.

The sample size for Nola against the Marlins is more than sufficient, considering he’s spent his entire career in Philadelphia. And while he’s certainly considered a quality pitcher, given his career record of 76-60 with a 3.64 ERA, our Action Labs database shows that the Phillies are just 99-98 in his starts for a loss of 17.98 units. Against the Marlins, the Phillies are also 8-11 when he starts for a loss of 5.25 units.

» READ MORE: Why Zach Eflin and Griff McGarry are the X-factors for the Phillies’ shorthanded pitching staff

Miami’s current lineup has had some success against Nola, evidenced by a .275 batting average in 109 plate appearances. However, given their .313 expected slugging percentage with an average launch angle of 6.6 degrees, they haven’t shown much power.

And while I think it’s abundantly clear that the Phillies are the better team, are you willing to lay 2.25-to-1 to back them in this spot? My model makes Philadelphia a -221 favorite, with Miami a +180 underdog. Thus, I see no value on either side after comparing my numbers with the current market price.

If you want to play this game, I would consider looking to the under. Our Action Network Weather Report shows possible rain with the wind blowing in with 10-11 mph gusts. The under is on a 4-0 run in the past four meetings, and it’s also 4-0 when Luzardo starts after the Marlins allowed five or more runs in the previous game.

You can play the alternate total under seven at BetMGM with a bit of juice at -125.

Lean under 7

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