MLB Preview: Phillies vs. Pirates pick and analysis

The Pirates are limping into their weekend series with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Pittsburgh has lost five straight and only scored more than two runs in one game during that span.

Bryse Wilson will start the series opener for the visitors, while the Phillies will counter with Bailey Falter, who is starting in place of Zack Wheeler.

The story on Friday night will be the return of Phillies slugger Bryce Harper to the lineup. His presence could spell bad news for Wilson and the Pirates, who are struggling to find any positives given their recent slump.

Moneyline: PIT (+230) vs. PHI (-275)

Spread: PIT +1.5 (+120) vs. PHI -1.5 (-145)

Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Bryse Wilson (2-7, 5.74 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter (1-3, 4.40 ERA)

Falter’s 4.40 ERA is slightly high, but his 1.29 WHIP is slightly above average. He can be susceptible to the long ball, as he’s allowing two home runs every nine innings this season. That’s a big reason his advanced numbers would make him a candidate for regression, given his 5.50 FIP and 5.52 xERA.

Falter has had success getting ahead in the count, evidenced by a first-pitch strike rate of 67.9%. However, he’ll need to do a better job of finishing hitters off, as the highest putaway rate of any of his five pitches in his arsenal is just 25%.

The good news is that he’s facing a Pirates team that can’t seem to do anything right offensively.

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Wilson’s advanced numbers are lower than his traditional ERA, but his potential for positive regression remains worrisome based on his 5.24 FIP and 5.50 xERA. He, too, has struggled with home runs, with a 1.72 HR/9 ratio. And he’s also striking out fewer batters (5.97) per nine innings than Falter (8.00).

Wilson will have his hands full against a Phillies team that has hit him well in a small sample size. In 25 plate appearances, Philadelphia’s lineup is hitting .435 with .503 wOBA and a .567 xSLG against Wilson.

Despite below average numbers by the starting pitchers, both teams have fared well recently with them on the mound. Pittsburgh is 3-1 in Wilson’s past four starts, while the Phillies are 5-1 in Falter’s past six outings.

The Phillies enter the weekend on a four-game winning streak, and are getting Harper back at an opportune time.

Philadelphia currently has a 2.5-game cushion in the wild card race, and the schedule breaks kindly for them the rest of the way. According to tankathon.com, the Phillies have the eighth-softest schedule for the remainder of the season. You can expect the Phillies to be massive favorites in many of their games, and Friday night is no different.

I took a shot at fading the Phillies on Thursday, as I can’t justify continuing to pay such a high price with them as favorites. If you’re looking to back the Phillies, you’re better off doing so on the runline.

Bettors might want to consider fading Pittsburgh on the first five runline. According to EVAnalytics, the Pirates are on an 0-5 run in this spot and 1-9 over a 10-game span. You can grab Philadelphia for the first five innings at -0.5 / -165 over BetMGM.

Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-165)

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