Back the Rangers to win against Phillies and a low strikeout total from Taijuan Walker

The Phillies keep winning.

They’ve now won four straight and have a commanding six-game lead atop the NL East, sitting with a whopping 35-14 record and a +83 run differential.

They look like the best team in baseball.

However, I think they’re a tad overvalued, and I have zero faith in starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.

Read on for our Rangers vs Phillies Odds, Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, May 22.

(Odds via Bet365 Sportsbook)

(6:40 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

I’m banking on a complete fade of Walker.

Following a shoulder injury to start the season, Walker’s fastball velocity is down two ticks year over year, sitting at a measly 91 mph. He’s also lost some heat on his cutter, sinker and splitter.

As a result, his advanced pitching model metrics are also down, as his Stuff+ rating has dropped eight points year over year (from 96 to 84), including 20 points on his fastball (79 to 59) and 12 on his sinker (81 to 69), his two most-used pitches.

So, Walker can’t miss bats anymore. He’s on pace for a career-low swinging-strike rate (7%) and a career-high zone-contact rate (94%). Even worse, it’s been all hard contact, as Walker’s batted-ball profile is a mess.

After striking out a surprising 15 batters across his first three starts, Walker came down to earth against the Mets, posting one strikeout on three whiffs with two walks in an injury-shortened start – he was hit with a comebacker to the foot and pulled early.

The Mets hit him hard in that start, posting a 58% hard-hit rate and a 95 mph average exit velocity on 12 batted balls, including this monstrous homer by Pete Alonso.

Walker is currently a replacement-level pitcher, boasting zero fWAR and an expected ERA of 6.30. He might still be hurt.

I expect the Rangers lineup to smack Walker around. For what it’s worth, the Phillies righty boasts a career 4.12 ERA in 39 lifetime innings against Texas, striking out only 25 of the 176 batters faced (14%) while surrendering 50 hits and 11 walks (1.6 WHIP).

The Rangers power numbers have slipped recently, but they could get a boost with Adolis Garcia returning from injury.

At the minimum, they can hurt Walker with elite plate discipline and swing decisions. The Rangers rank among the top 10 MLB lineups in strikeout rate (20%), walk rate (10%), swinging-strike rate (10%), chase rate (26%) and zone-contact rate (85%).

Walker can’t miss bats, and Texas puts the bat on everything. That’s a bad combination for the Phillies.

The Phillies boast a better lineup and bullpen than the Rangers, and I don’t like putting my cash behind Texas starting pitcher Dane Dunning (4.10 ERA, 5.51 xERA, 4.88 FIP, 3.73 xFIP).

Still, I think the Phillies are overvalued overall and a worthy fade candidate in the short term, given that their Pythagorean record (33-16) is a few games worse than their actual. They’re 10-4 in one-run games and have played only three against teams with a winning record, two indicators of overperformance.

And because Philadelphia has played so well, we’re getting a reasonable plus-money price with Texas, which is a must-bet against Walker.

Additionally, the Phillies had to use their three highest-leverage relievers in Tuesday’s 5-2 win, with Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman combining for 32 pitches. That could prove costly if Walker can’t pitch deep into the game, which is expected.

Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen is fully rested.

I also think it’s worth fading Walker in the player prop market.

Walker’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low (17%), but that still might oversell his strikeout potential. His whiff and chase rates are tremendously low, and his zone-contact rate is tremendously high. The Action Network’s Sean Koerner projects Walker with a 15% expected strikeout rate based on the underlying statistical profile.

For what it’s worth, Walker managed only two strikeouts across 11 innings and 49 total batters in his two Triple-A rehab starts, suitable for a 4% rate. That might be a more accurate representation of his punchout capabilities.

And, again, he’s facing an uber-disciplined Rangers lineup that never whiffs.

The Action Network (3.8), BallParkPal (3.7) and RotoWire (4.0) all project Walker for fewer than four strikeouts on Wednesday against the Rangers.

Bank on a blowup appearance from the struggling Phil and wager accordingly.

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