Will the Phillies make the playoffs? Here’s what the odds are saying.

The Phillies are third place in the NL East, eight games back of the first-place Braves. They’re 1 1/2 games behind the Giants for the third NL wildcard spot. They’re 35-34 with a minus-20 run differential.

As we approach the season’s halfway point, do the Phillies have a good shot at making the postseason?

Vegas oddsmakers are on the fence.

The odds offered for the Phillies making the playoffs are currently around +100, and the odds offered for the Phils to miss the playoffs are currently around -120.

These odds mean sportsbooks believe the Phillies are slightly worse than a coin flip to make the playoffs.

The +100 odds offered to make the playoffs imply exactly a 50% chance, while the -120 odds offered to miss the playoffs imply a 54.5% chance.

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There are a few things to break down here.

The first is the math.

The projection models are muddled. FanGraphs models give the Phillies a 40.4% shot at clinching a post-season berth. Their same models project the Phillies win the NL East 4% of the time, so it’ll likely come down to the wildcard.

FanGraphs projects five other wildcard teams with a better shot at the postseason than the Phillies: the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Brewers and Marlins.

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA standings are much more bullish. Those models project the Phillies make the playoffs 66% of the time, which includes an 11.6% chance of winning the NL East and a better shot at picking up a wildcard berth than any non-division-leading team save the Padres.

So, which model should we trust more?

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The second thing to break down is the schedule, which breaks very well for the Phillies.

By opposing winning percentage, the Phillies have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the National League, only ahead of the Cubs. The Phillies have a significantly easier remaining path than the Diamondbacks, Giants and Marlins, which could prove huge in a tight playoff race.

The final thing to break down is the state of the Phillies.

They’re playing well.

The Phillies have won 10 of their last 12. The offense has finally taken a step forward, posting the third-highest OPS (.823) and fifth-highest wRC+ (121) over the past two weeks. Kyle Schwarber continues to defy expectations by being an above-average hitter despite hitting .174, while both Bryson Stott and Nick Castellanos are hitting well over .300.

Imagine if Bryce Harper really starts to crank it up? His xwOBA (.380) is 20 points higher than his wOBA (.360), so he’s due for some positive regression. He’s still barreling the ball, although he’s hitting the ball on the ground more than ever (career low average launch angle, highest ground-ball rate since 2013).

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There’s also reason to be bullish on the Phillies’ pitching staff.

The Phillies rely heavily on their top two workhorse starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and their struggles have defined an underwhelming start to the season. But both could easily turn it around and begin playing like the All-Stars they are.

Wheeler is a notoriously slow starter that needs time to stretch out fully — he has a lifetime 4.31 ERA in April and a 2.59 ERA in September. His underlying metrics look good, so expect general positive regression.

Nola was a much bigger worry, given his struggles with velocity early on. But he posted his highest average velocity in his most recent start while showing better location and command — in fact, his numbers were right in line with last year’s, when he earned Cy Young votes.

Throw in Ranger Suarez’s sub-4.00 ERA, and this rotation no longer looks so thin.

Even better, Jose Alvarado is back from injury, and his return is significant – this bullpen ranked top-10 in expected FIP with Alvarado in the fold.

The Phillies have a ton of upside, so I’m partial toward the PECOTA model. Given the roster and the schedule, I believe the Phillies can clinch a playoff berth more than 60% of the time, so betting on them at (+100) in this market is a steal.

The Play: Phillies to make playoffs – Yes (+100)

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