MLB Preview: Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies won again on Tuesday night as they defeated the Miami Marlins, 4-1, to extend their winning streak to six games.

On Wednesday, the newly acquired Noah Syndergaard will make his second start for the Phillies after coming over from the Angels at the trade deadline.

Syndergaard got roughed up a bit in his Phillies debut but still managed to pick up the decision in the rain-shortened 5-4 victory over the Washington Nationals.

He’ll need to be better this time as he’ll be up against the NL Cy Young favorite in Sandy Alcantara.

It’s not often that you find Alcantara as an underdog this season. And although I think the wrong team is favored in this spot, I’ll share my reasons on why I plan to approach this game from a first five innings perspective.

Odds provided by FanDuel

Moneyline: MIA (+110) vs. PHI (-130)

Spread: MIA +1.5 (-205) vs. PHI -1.5 (+168)

Total: Over 7 (-122) | Under 7 (+100)

Sandy Alcantara (10-4, 1.88 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (6-8, 4.02 ERA)

After allowing four earned runs two starts ago in a 6-4 loss to the Mets, Alcantara bounced back with a complete game 3-0 shutout against the Reds.

The last time Alcantara allowed at least four earned runs, his team went on to win his next three starts, surrendering just two earned runs in 24 innings of work.

Those signs could provide a reason for optimism as the Marlins right-hander gets set to make his 23rd start of the season.

Alcantara will face a Phillies lineup that, in 155 plate appearances, is batting .239 with a .289 wOBA. Look for the right-hander to feature a heavy dose of his sinker and slider tonight.

According to Baseball Savant, the pitch usage for his sinker is 24.9%, while his slider comes in at 22.6%. And if we look at the effectiveness of those pitches, FanGraphs estimates his sinker is 11.9 runs above average, and the slider is 4.1 runs above average.

Both pitches match up nicely against the Phillies, who have a below-average value of -16.4 runs when facing a sinker and -3.6 runs against a slider.

As for Syndergaard, while there’s no doubt he adds depth to the Phillies rotation, the reality is he hasn’t been the same pitcher since his return from Tommy John surgery.

His velocity dropped significantly from 97.9 mph before the injury in 2019 to 94.5 mph this season. Moreover, his contact rate of 79% is the highest of his career.

Syndergaard doesn’t command the same fear in opposing hitters as he once did. His power numbers have dropped significantly from a career 9.45 K/9 ratio to 6.99 K/9 this season.

In his first start with the Phillies, I rightly assessed that Syndergaard might be too excited in his outing as he allowed four runs in his five innings of work. And given this challenge of having to match zeroes with Alcantara, it wouldn’t surprise me if Syndergaard is overly excited once again.

I took a look at Syndergaard’s recent numbers in the first five innings.

Dating back to May 30th, Syndergaard is just 1-6-2 straight up in this spot for a loss of 5.29 units. In contrast, Alcantara (7-1-8, +3.58 units) has just one first five moneyline loss in his last 16 starts.

Since this is a play to isolate Syndergaard, I’ll be backing Alcantara and the Marlins on the first five moneyline at -105.

Marlins F5 ML (-105)

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.