MLB preview: Reds vs. Phillies odds, picks, prediction

We cashed a ticket with the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday as the Phillies went wire-to-wire, defeating the Cincinnati Reds by a 4-1 margin. Noah Syndergaard was efficient as he tossed 89 pitches in seven innings while allowing just three hits.

If you’re keeping track at home, Syndergaard’s teams are a perfect 8-0 when facing the Reds and also 8-0 against the run line for the first five innings.

While Monday’s outcome felt somewhat routine, I can assure you that Tuesday’s matchup won’t be as straightforward no matter what the betting odds might suggest.

That’s because the Reds will start their rookie southpaw in Nick Lodolo.

This will be a rematch from last Wednesday when Cincinnati hosted Philadelphia with Lodolo on the mound against the Phillies’ Ranger Suárez.

Both pitchers were spectacular as they matched one another frame by frame for seven innings.

The game’s first run didn’t come until the ninth inning when the Reds walked it off with a Jose Barrero single off Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez.

This is a tricky handicap since both teams faced the same pitcher just a week ago.

However, one approach we can use is to compare the betting odds for both games to see what we can glean from how the oddsmakers adjusted their lines.

Moneyline: CIN (+180) vs. PHI (-220)

Spread: CIN +1.5 (-120) vs. PHI -1.5 (+100)

Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Nick Lodolo (3-4, 4.12 ERA) vs. Ranger Suárez (8-5, 3.31 ERA)

Six days ago, the Phillies opened as a -167 road favorite before closing around -156. The Reds opened at +140 and closed around +143.

Our Action Network MLB Report showed that the home underdogs drew the bulk of the sharp action in this game. But today, with the same pitchers on the mound, the Phillies are as high as a -220 favorite.

Surely home field advantage can’t be responsible for the more than 50 cents increase on the moneyline odds. After all, this season, Philadelphia has won two more games on the road (33-26) than at home (34-29).

My model makes the Phillies a -152 favorite in this matchup, so I think there’s tremendous value on the underdog.

However, asking Lodolo and the Reds to pull off the upset in back-to-back weeks won’t be easy, with the Phillies likely to make some adjustments.

One option that has caught my eye is a play on the total. I think the under could be in play here as my model projects a total of 7.46 runs. Here are some key trends that also support a play on the under:

This total opened at 8.5 and was already bet down a half-run. Yet, even at the current number, we’re still seeing some juice to the under, which might suggest it could drop even lower to 7.5.

The only thing that gives me a slight pause is that the wind (8.5 mph) will be blowing out to right field at the start of the game.

However, the humidity (43.62%) is below 50%, which favors pitchers more than the hitters.

Nonetheless, I think the under is worth a shot here, and I’ll look to add some insurance by playing an alternate total of 8.5 with odds at -135.

ALT Total under 8.5 runs (-135)

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