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MLB preview: Yankees vs. Angels odds, prediction and picks

The Action Network’s Michael Arinze is targeting the total in the Yankees series opener vs. the Angels

Action Network Use Only - NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 18: Frankie Montas #47 of the New York Yankees reacts in the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on August 18, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Action Network Use Only - NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 18: Frankie Montas #47 of the New York Yankees reacts in the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on August 18, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)Read moreMike Stobe / Getty Images

The New York Yankees will take on the Los Angeles Angels after splitting a four-game series with the Oakland Athletics. New York pounded Oakland for 13 runs on Thursday but failed to score more than three runs in any of the remaining three games.

On Monday, the Yankees will send Frankie Montas to the mound while the Angels will counter with José Suarez.

Montas does have experience pitching against Los Angeles from his time with Oakland, whereas Suarez will make his second start against New York.

One interesting angle for this game could be the total, as there are some intriguing trends bettors can take advantage of when the Yankees are in the midst of a run-scoring drought.

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Yankees vs. Angels MLB odds

Moneyline: NYY (-185) vs. LAA (+150)

Spread: NYY -1.5 (-110) vs. LAA +1.5 (-110)

Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Yankees vs. Angels probable pitchers

Frankie Montas (4-10, 3.84 ERA) vs. José Suarez (4-6, 4.19 ERA)

Despite being 18 games below .500, the Angels come into this contest on a three-game winning streak after sweeping the Blue Jays in Toronto.

The Angels held the Blue Jays to three runs in the series, including back-to-back shutouts in the first two games. Typically, when rotations get this hot, the pitchers challenge one another to keep the streak going.

As a result, I suspect the rest of the Angels staff has already communicated the same to Suarez.

The Angels left-hander has put up decent numbers against the Yankees. According to Baseball Savant, the Pinstripes are hitting .194 with a .237 xBA in 43 plate appearances against Suarez.

If we compare both pitchers, each has just four wins on the year. However, Montas’s 3.44 xFIP and 3.55 FIP suggest he’s pitched even better than his record shows.

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Montas also has good numbers against this current Angels lineup as they’re batting .213 with a .233 xBA in 96 plate appearances.

Thus, when you put it all together, the combination of both pitchers could lead to a lower-scoring game as the total is a combined 23-13 to the under in their starts this season.

Moreover, if we look at the trends coming into this game, there’s a solid case to be made for the under:

  1. The total is 4-0 to the under when the Yankees scored two or fewer runs in their previous game.

  2. The total is 4-0-2 in New York’s past six games when facing a left-handed starter.

  3. When Suarez pitches on five days of rest, the under is on a 4-0 run.

The one thing that does give me a cause for concern is the wind. Our Action Network weather report shows gusts as high as 8.5 mph out to right-center field.

Montas should play a vital role in the matchup for under bettors as Angels hitters have an average launch angle of 6.6 degrees when facing the right-hander.

Although my model’s projection (8.12) on the total is right around the current number, I hope the recent trends are strong enough to work in our favor.

Nevertheless, I’ll look to grab some insurance and play the alternate line with the under at 8.5 / -130.

Yankees vs. Angels pick

ALT Total Under 8.5 (-130)

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