How signing Trea Turner moved Phillies’ World Series odds
How big of a swing could one free-agent signing produce?
The Phillies did what they have become pretty proficient at over the last few offseasons: they signed the main player they targeted in free agency. The team on Tuesday agreed to an 11-year, $300 million deal with star shortstop Trea Turner.
Turner’s addition gives the Phillies an even more formidable lineup than the one that carried them just a few months ago to a World Series appearance for the first time since 2009.
It’s clear that the Phillies are all-in for the next few seasons. And adding Turner improved their chances of bringing a World Series back to Philadelphia. How much so? The Phillies were +1600 (16/1) to win the 2023 World Series yesterday morning at BetMGM. After the signing, the odds moved to +1200 (12/1).
Here’s a look at the latest World Series odds at BetMGM.
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While signing Turner was a big move for the Phillies, they still have some work to do this offseason to improve a team that went from wildcard spot to NL champion. Their pitching rotation still needs at least one more starter and they need to replace plenty of innings in the bullpen.
» READ MORE: Offseason tracker: From free agent deals to rumors, keep up with the Phillies' offseason
It’s fair to wonder, though, how different these odds would look if Bryce Harper, who swung the Phillies through the playoffs with his bat, wasn’t recovering from Tommy John surgery and missing a chunk of the 2023 season.
The Phillies aren’t the only team to make improvements. The Mets, for example, signed AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander a few hours before the Turner deal and now have him at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer. The Astros, who beat the Phillies in six games in the World Series, signed slugger José Abreu.
The key in signing Turner, a .302/.355/.487 hitter over eight seasons, is the length of the deal, which stretched out the average annual salary number and lowered the Phillies’ yearly spend. They have the ability to sign another starter and a few more bullpen pieces. Owner John Middleton is making it clear that the Phillies are going to do whatever it takes to put a championship team on the field.
So, do the Phillies have a lot of value at 12/1?
It feels like a good price right now, long before the offseason finishes and the complete version of the Phillies comes to fruition. Then again, the Harper situation makes things interesting. Even without him, there’s good reason to like the Phillies to score runs with the rest of the players in the lineup. Plus, you have to assume the Phillies are going to continue to improve the roster in the two-plus months before spring training begins.
» READ MORE: ‘These are the guys we want, so go get them’: How owner John Middleton pushed the Phillies to land Trea Turner
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