Timberwolves have best value to win competitive Western Conference in 2024 NBA playoffs

Outside of the Twin Cities area, nobody honestly thinks the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best team in the Western Conference.

The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions and are fully capable of repeating, the Oklahoma City Thunder have home court advantage throughout, the Dallas Mavericks are playing outstanding basketball, and the Phoenix Suns swept the Timberwolves in the regular season.

All of those teams — and a few others in the West, for that matter — are legitimate obstacles in Minnesota’s quest to reach its first NBA Finals in franchise history. But does that explain why the Timberwolves have the sixth-best odds to win the West?

Let’s dive a little deeper to answer that question and make a pick for the team in the West to make the NBA Finals.

Odds via FanDuel

A 56-win team with the clear best defense in the NBA has the sixth-best odds in its own conference? The Timberwolves seem way too undervalued.

But I get it. They looked terrible in their three games against the Suns and lack the historical postseason success to garner trust that it will “flip a switch” in crunch time. There are real reasons to doubt them, and I’m not here to waive off anyone’s concerns.

But I’m sorry, Minnesota having the sixth-best odds to win the West is absurd. Denver and OKC deserve to be favored ahead of them, and I can understand Dallas as well, and that’s where it ends.

I don’t trust the Clippers or an inconsistent Phoenix team to win three consecutive rounds, whereas the Timberwolves have a real chance.

I’m not fully convinced Minnesota will beat the Suns in the first round because it’s clearly a difficult matchup for the Timberwolves. Phoenix has three dudes who can pop off for 30 points in any given game.

» READ MORE: Celtics are worth the bet as the chalk to win the Eastern Conference in the 2024 NBA playoffs

But I don’t buy that Minnesota is drawing dead against the Suns, either. In three regular-season games between the two teams, Anthony Edwards never had more than 17 points, totaling 43 on 42 shots while shooting 31%.

Those are three really bad outings for Edwards, but is that level of play really expected to continue in this series?

It’s not like Phoenix has lockdown perimeter defenders to consistently corral a player as good as Edwards. I would expect some adjustments to be made by Timberwolves coach Chris Finch.

And let’s remember, this Suns team was so inconsistent that fans wanted coach Frank Vogel fired earlier this month, so they’re not exactly an unbeatable foe.

If Minnesota does get past the first round, it won’t be completely outmatched in the later rounds.

The Timberwolves went 2-2 against the Nuggets with two comfortable wins and both losses coming without Karl-Anthony Towns, who just returned to the lineup last week. They were also 2-2 against the Thunder, and finished 3-1 vs. the Mavericks.

Minnesota also gets framed as a young team because many of its key players are under the age of 25, but Towns is middle aged for the NBA at 28 and Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are both in their thirties with relevant playoff experience.

The Timberwolves are also the third-best 3-point shooting team by percentage (38.7%). A few hot nights from deep paired with a stingy defense is tough for any opponent to deal with.

While Minnesota should not be the favorite in the West, its sixth-best odds to win the conference are ridiculous.

Take a flier on the T-Wolves to win the Western Conference at +1000 on FanDuel or DraftKings.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.