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How does Chet Holmgren’s injury impact the NBA Rookie of the Year odds?

The Action Network’s Michael Arinze assesses the NBA Rookie of the Year betting market following Chet Holmgren’s season-ending injury

Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder poses during the 2022 NBA Rookie Portraits at UNLV on July 14, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder poses during the 2022 NBA Rookie Portraits at UNLV on July 14, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)Read moreGregory Shamus / Getty Images

Five days after he hobbled off the court in former NBA player Jamal Crawford’s Pro-Am game, the Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Chet Holmgren, the second overall pick, is out for the upcoming season with a Lisfranc injury in his right foot.

While this news is obviously devastating for the Thunder and NBA fans alike, it immediately impacts the race for the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award.

The earliest odds we saw in this market listed the Magic’s Paolo Banchero (first overall pick) as the favorite at +300. Houston’s Jabari Smith (third overall pick) had the second-shortest odds at +300, while Holmgren was third at +475.

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NBA ROY Odds On June 23rd

  1. Paolo Banchero +300

  2. Jabari Smith Jr +350

  3. Chet Holmgren +475

  4. Jaden Ivey +500

  5. Keegan Murray +800

  6. Bennedict Mathurin +1200

  7. Shaedon Sharpe +1200

  8. Dyson Daniels +1500

  9. Johnny Davis +2000

  10. Ochai Agbaji +2000

  11. Jalen Williams +2500

  12. A.J. Griffin +2500

  13. Ousmane Dieng +2500

  14. Mark Williams +2500

  15. Jalen Duren +3000

Current FanDuel Odds

  1. Paolo Banchero +200

  2. Jaden Ivey +500

  3. Keegan Murray +500

  4. Jabari Smith +600

  5. Bennedict Mathurin +1100

  6. Shaedon Sharpe +3000

  7. Johnny Davis +3300

  8. Dyson Daniels +3300

  9. Jaden Hardy +4000

  10. Jalen Williams +4200

  11. Jalen Duren +4200

  12. Ochai Agbaji +4200

  13. Mark Williams +4500

  14. Jeremy Sochan +5500

  15. AJ Griffin +5500

  16. Ousmane Dieng +5500

  17. Malaki Branham +6500

  18. Nikola Jovic +6500

  19. Tari Eason +10000

  20. Dalen Terry +10000

  21. Jake LaRavia +10000

  22. MarJon Beauchamp +10000

  23. Tyty Washington Jr. +13000

  24. Christian Braun +18000

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Banchero deserves to be a heavy favorite

Banchero’s odds shortening to +200 shouldn’t surprise anyone as the top overall pick. At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, he comes into the league with an NBA-ready frame.

Banchero led Duke to the Final Four, averaging 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. And while he only played in two NBA Summer League games, he averaged 20 points, five rebounds, and six assists.

As much as I’m always looking to fade the favorite in these markets, it’ll take quite a performance from the other contenders to keep Banchero from winning Rookie of the Year. He stuffs the stat sheet probably better than any rookie in his class and should walk right into the Magic’s starting lineup.

» READ MORE: Bettors at Caesars are bullish on the Eagles as NFL preseason wraps

Murray is a legitimate contender at +500

Sacramento’s Keegan Murray, picked fourth overall in the draft, is the other player who saw his odds improve. He’s down to +500 after opening at +800.

Murray is a tremendous shooter at 6-foot-8. He averaged 23.5 points and 5.1 rebounds while shooting 40% from behind the three-point line before declaring early for the draft after his sophomore year.

During the summer, the Iowa product led all rookies in scoring with 23.3 points and he once again shot 40% from distance over the four games. He also averaged seven rebounds per game.

And if symmetry is your thing, the previous Rookie of the Year winner, Scottie Barnes, was also selected with the fourth overall pick.

» READ MORE: A second look at the Sixers’ schedule and 10 games that will define their season

Value on Mathurin at +1100?

One player that still has value on the board is Indiana’s, Bennedict Mathurin. Like Murray, Mathurin entered the draft following his sophomore year. He averaged 17.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists at Arizona.

At the NBA Summer League, Mathurin finished third among rookies with 19.3 points per game, shooting 39% from behind the three-point line.

The only hindrance I see with Mathurin winning ROY is whether he’ll get enough minutes on the court to challenge the other contenders. Mathurin will likely slot in behind Buddy Hield at shooting guard on the Pacers’ depth chart.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.