Back Wagner and Colorado State to cover in their First Four NCAA Tournament matchups on Tuesday

The only way to bet the entire NCAA Tournament is to start with the First Four play-in games.

Here are my favorite two sides for the Tuesday matchups.

(6:40 p.m. ET, truTV)

This is a fascinating schematic matchup.

Both defenses run a similar scheme, a matchup zone look with press-happy coverage.

At first, I thought the Bison could shoot over Wagner’s zone. The Bison’s Princeton motion offense creates an immeasurable number of open jumpers. They led the MEAC in 3-point rate and Open 3 Rate by a mile, ultimately canning 38% of their triples.

However, somewhat surprisingly, Wagner ranks in the top 40 nationally in the Open 3 Rate allowed, successfully closing out on shooters. That’s a huge problem for Howard.

Additionally, the Seahawks are the much better ball-handling team, which is critical in a matchup between two press coverages. They also seldom foul, which is vital against a Bison squad that lives at the line (11th nationally in free-throw rate).

Wagner can’t score, ranking among the worst college basketball offenses. However, the Seahawks will have a considerable size advantage on the wing, and most of their scoring comes from Melvin Councli Jr. and Tahron Allen.

Of arguably greater importance, Wagner gets out in transition at a surprisingly high rate for such a slow-paced team (361st in tempo). The Seahawks scored the fourth-most fast-break points in NEC play and rank above the 70th percentile of transition PPP.

That could be the difference maker against a Howard defense that ranks sub-300th nationally in transition PPP and sub-350th in fast-break points per game allowed.

Ultimately, I think this could devolve into a lower-scoring rock fight, especially between Wagner’s offensive struggles and decent defensive matchup.

So, I’m happy to grab over one possession in a points-at-a-premium battle with a Seahawks team with some advantages, namely wing scoring, transition buckets, and excellent 3-point defense.

(9:10 p.m. ET, truTV)

The Cavs shouldn’t have made the NCAA Tournament.

They rank 44 spots below St. John’s in KenPom, yet the Red Storm will watch this matchup from their couches.

Specifically, the Hoos shouldn’t be here because they can’t score. They failed to reach 50 points in four of their final five regular-season games. Tony Bennett’s blocker-mover offense has reached new levels of pathetic, and nobody on the team can make free throws (64% from the line this year, which ranks 355th nationally).

Of course, Bennett’s pack-line defense is still among the nation’s best.

But Colorado State can circumvent it.

Head coach Niko Medved is a mastermind schemer who can work around Bennett’s pack line with plenty of inventive perimeter motion sets, thus winning over the top.

Additionally, point guard Isaiah Stevens is among the nation’s best playmakers, averaging over seven assists per game.

Virginia’s cut-denial defense is excellent, but the Cavaliers are vulnerable on a per-possession basis if you can dribble-penetrate the pack line. Stevens is good enough to do that and then accurately hit rim-running cutters – the Rams rank sixth nationally in cutting points per game (12).

With Stevens penetrating the pack line and Medved’s scheming offense on the interior, I expect the Rams to fully unpack Bennett’s legendary defense.

But, if I’m wrong, I suspect the Rams will grind out a few more positive offensive sets than the lifeless Cavaliers, thus working their way to a first-round matchup with Texas.

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