Sizing up the NFL Draft market after Caleb Williams goes off the board at No. 1

The 2024 NFL Draft is roughly three weeks away as teams continue to finalize their boards for the players and positions they plan to prioritize.

However, the worst-kept secret is that the Chicago Bears will likely draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick.

Williams is currently -8000 at FanDuel Sportsbook to be the first player off the board. However, bettors can still value picking players who will round out the top three in the draft.

In this preview, we’ll utilize the Pro Football Focus (PFF) personnel needs for the two teams that will pick after the Bears to project which players they’ll most likely select.

Needs: Quarterback, edge rusher, offensive line

After winning the starting quarterback job in his second year with the Commanders, Washington traded Sam Howell along with a 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 102 overall) and a 2024 sixth-round pick (No. 179) in exchange for a 2024 third-rounder (No. 78) and a 2024 fifth-rounder (No. 152).

Howell finished the year 24th in Total QBR (42.4) while having the same number of touchdowns as interceptions (21).

Although it’s probably a bit too early to give up on Howell after just one year as a starter, NFL general managers aren’t afforded much time to put together a winning product on the field.

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It’s worth noting that since Howell was a fifth-round selection (No. 144) in 2022, the Commanders can afford to jettison him for a chance to select a quarterback near the top of the draft.

North Carolina’s Drake Maye was initially projected to be the second player selected in the draft behind Williams. However, the market has started to cool on Maye, with LSU’s Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels, the current favorite at -105.

Last year, Anthony Richardson shot up the draft board with his ability to throw and run out of the backfield. Daniels is an even more polished thrower than Richardson, completing 72.2% of his pass attempts compared to 63.3% for Maye.

Daniels also had the highest PFF player grade (94.7) of any quarterback last season.

The appointment of Kliff Kingsbury as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator adds further credence to Washington selecting Daniels. After all, Kingsbury worked with a mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray during his time as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals.

At BetMGM, you can still find Daniels at even money (+100) to be the second overall pick in the draft.

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Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line

Like the Commanders, the Patriots traded a quarterback in the offseason, sending Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick (No. 192).

The former Alabama quarterback regressed in his last two seasons after finishing as a runner-up for the Rookie of the Year behind Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

Jones posted a 56.9 Total QBR in his rookie campaign, but his rating dropped to 38.4 in his second year and then 36.7 last season.

Thus, New England is still searching for a franchise quarterback to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady.

According to a report from the NFL Network’s Bridget Condon, Patriots’ former head coach Bill Belichick leaned heavily toward selecting Daniels with the third overall pick before parting ways with the organization.

However, if Daniels isn’t available, will the Patriots shift their attention to select Maye?

You have to go back to 1994 to find the last time the Patriots had a top-five pick. And considering that the 2025 quarterback draft class isn’t as deep as this year’s, there’s no telling when New England will be picking this high again.

As a result, the Patriots may have to go with Maye if the Commanders select Daniels with the second pick.

There’s always a chance the Patriots trade out of the pick or even select a player like Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison is considered a generational talent who might have the best draft grade of any player available this year.

The potential downside to Harrison is that he skipped the NFL Combine along with Ohio State’s Pro Day, which won’t exactly endear the wide receiver to the teams looking to draft him.

There’s also a possibility that Harrison picked up an injury he wanted to keep hidden from teams.

With the Patriots’ fanbase somewhat disenchanted with the franchise’s direction, selecting Maye gives them a chance at a franchise quarterback and some much-needed renewed optimism.

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