Bears vs. Commanders prediction: Can either offense come alive on Thursday?

One week after one of the worst football games to ever be played on national television, we’re treated to another all-timer (cough, cough) between the Commanders and Bears, who could threaten last week’s contest in offensive futility.

Chicago opened the week as a short favorite at BetMGM, though Washington is getting the slight nod as kickoff nears in a game with one of the lowest totals we’ve seen all season. Can either of these offenses show signs of life on short rest?

Here’s how we’re betting Thursday night’s contest, which kicks off at 5:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Anybody who’s been following our previews all year knows how I feel about low totals – if oddsmakers expect a snoozer, it’s worth your attention.

Since the start of the 2020 season, there have only been eight games with a total of 38 or below. Those contests went a sizzling 7-1 to the under (87.5%), including a perfect 3-0 when either of these teams were involved. That’s the backdrop for Thursday’s affair, which is currently dealing the third-lowest total of the season.

There’s a reason these offenses have earned such little respect from oddsmakers. Entering Week 6, the Commanders (18 PPG) and Bears (17.2) both rank in the bottom seven in points per game and the bottom four in offensive DVOA, while Chicago holds the distinction of ranking second to last in yards per game (274).

Conversely, there’s talent across the board for both of these defenses. The Bears rank 15th in scoring defense (21.2 PPG) despite facing the second-most plays per drive (6.66), and they’re tied for eighth in takeaways (8) through the first five weeks. That’s a strong recipe for success against Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz, whose six interceptions are one shy of the NFL lead. Wentz has turned it over at least once in every game this season.

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On the other side, Washington ranks eighth in yards allowed per drive (29.3) and sixth in rush defense DVOA, which is a strong sign ahead of Thursday’s matchup with the run-happy Bears. The Commanders’ pass defense has been atrocious, though that hardly matters against a Chicago offense that’s completed just 49 passes all season. That’s on pace for the fewest across a full season since the 1978 Buccaneers completed 151 passes in 16 games.

I don’t see any reason to expect an offensive resurgence from the Bears in this one, and Washington’s offense can’t seem to get out of its own way. I’ll gladly side with the betting market here and bet low on the extreme total – something that’s been largely profitable for years now.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.