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Bengals vs. Dolphins player props: Tricky spot for Burrow, Tagovailoa in Thursday’s clash

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa each face a tough task in Thursday’s Week 4 matchup.

ACTION NETWORK USE ONLY - Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) faces a tough matchup against the tenacious Miami Dolphins defense in Thursday's Week 4 matchup. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
ACTION NETWORK USE ONLY - Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) faces a tough matchup against the tenacious Miami Dolphins defense in Thursday's Week 4 matchup. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)Read moreTony Gutierrez / AP

For the first time since being drafted four picks apart in 2020, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa will face off in a critical spot for both teams as they jockey for positioning in the loaded AFC.

Both star quarterbacks could face a difficult task on Thursday, with Burrow’s side still struggling to find its rhythm and Tagovailoa battling myriad injuries despite his active status for this one. With that in mind, here are a few prop bets we’re targeting at BetMGM ahead of kickoff:

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Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions (+105)

After reaching the Super Bowl in just his second season, this year hasn’t quite been the storybook encore for Burrow, who started his junior campaign with five turnovers and clearly hasn’t been himself behind a shaky offensive line. It won’t get any easier on Thursday.

The Dolphins rank third in pass-rush win rate (53%) and led the league last year in QB knockdown rate (12.7%), and they’re coming off a four-sack performance of MVP favorite Josh Allen in a crucial upset victory. I’d be scared of that matchup for this Bengals front, which ranks 29th in pass-block win rate (50%) coming into Thursday’s contest.

That’s bad news for Burrow, who has historically been more turnover-prone when under pressure. The third-year passer has been sacked multiple times in 23 of his 29 career starts, and he’s thrown a combined 20 interceptions in those games, including at least one in 12 of 23 starts (52.2%). I like his chances of throwing another at these odds.

Tua Tagovailoa under 34.5 passing attempts (-115)

I’ve been one of Tagovailoa’s biggest fans for years, and I was shouting from the rooftops about his potential in this offense well before his record-setting performance in Week 2. But I’d be absolutely shocked if he attempted 35 passes on Thursday.

The Dolphins’ rising star attempted just 18 passes in last week’s win over the Bills, when he was clearly hampered by an array of injuries that aren’t yet clear even with kickoff just hours away. It seems like the biggest issue – as far as Tagovailoa and the medical staff are concerned – is a nagging back injury that the quarterback said affects “every aspect” of his game.

Does that sound like someone ready to sling it 35 times on short rest? Tagovailoa barely practiced this week, and I don’t expect coach Mike McDaniel to ask too much of his star signal-caller, who’s attempted 35 or more passes just three times in his last 11 games.

Ja’Marr Chase longest reception over 24.5 yards (-120)

The day is coming that Chase finally records a reception of at least 25 yards, which shockingly hasn’t happened through the first three weeks of the season.

The Bengals speedster led the league in catches of at least 50 yards last season (6), when he posted a 25-yard catch or longer in 12 of 21 games (57.1%) including the postseason. He simply hasn’t had a chance this year, as defenses have employed a heavy dose of two-high safety looks and blanketed Chase at every turn. That isn’t really the Dolphins’ style, though, as this group tends to blitz at a high rate and trust its elite secondary to make plays on the back end.

While that’s an effective way to fluster passing offenses and force turnovers (see: Burrow prop), it’s not exactly the best recipe for preventing a long bomb or two, and Chase has the talent to make Miami pay for leaving him in single coverage down the field. He nearly hauled in a deep pass in last week’s win over the Jets; he’ll finish the job this time around.

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