Chiefs vs. Bills prediction: Expect shoot-out in epic playoff rematch

We’ve been waiting for months for what profiles as the best matchup all season: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of one of the best games in NFL postseason history.

The Bills are priced as 2.5-point road favorites at BetMGM after dealing as high as -3.5 earlier in the week. Clearly, the market is skewing Kansas City here, but Buffalo’s early dominance is enough to keep this line frozen near a key number ahead of kickoff.

Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

There are so many reasons to blindly bet the over in this spot: recent results, the strength of both offenses, and the history of this matchup itself. Sometimes, the easy answer is also the right one.

The Chiefs got off to a slow start this season, but we’ve seen this group come alive in recent years. After scoring just 17 points against the Colts – tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the Patrick Mahomes era – Kansas City roared back a week later with a 41-point outburst against the Buccaneers, who owned the NFL’s best scoring defense entering that matchup.

Once again, the Chiefs’ offense started slow last week against the Raiders. Once again, they came alive, led by a record-setting night from Travis Kelce (four TDs) in a thrilling win. The final score undersells just how efficient this offense really was: Kansas City finished the game with a whopping 29 first downs, which is the sixth-most by any team this season.

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Of course, the hosts aren’t the only ones in this matchup with an elite offense. The Bills rank first in the NFL in yards per game (440.4) and rank second in points per game (30.4) behind, fittingly, the Chiefs (31.8). Their 38 points in last week’s blowout win over the Bills was somehow only this team’s second-best effort this season, with 31 points coming in the first half alone.

Clearly, these two can put up points in a hurry, as we’ve seen each of the last three times they’ve faced off. Buffalo and Kansas City combined for 62 points in the 2020 AFC championship game, then combined for 58 points in the following regular season before that epic 42-36 Chiefs win in the 2021 divisional round.

It’ll be tough to match the theatrics of that one, but don’t be surprised to see a similarly spectacular scoring output. All three of their previous games went over despite a total of 54 or higher in all three contests. With both offenses clicking ahead of Week 6, this one should be well worth the price of admission.

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