Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction: Fade Pickett, Pittsburgh in second career start

Kenny Pickett’s first career start in Buffalo went about as poorly as one might expect. His second chance? A date with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who are coming off a narrow win against the division rival Falcons in a game marred by officiating controversy.

Even with that close result, Tampa Bay is still dealing as a 9.5-point favorite entering the weekend over lowly Pittsburgh, which has lost four straight after a wacky Week 1 win.

Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Fox.

This line has slowly crept up all week in favor of the Buccaneers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game crosses the key number of 10 before kickoff. Even if it does, there’s still value on the road favorites in a game that shouldn’t be close.

It’s easy to look at Tampa Bay’s 3-2 record and cast this group into the sea of mediocrity that has swept the league this season, but that’s simply selling the Bucs short. Even with last week’s narrow win, they still rank fourth in DVOA and seventh in net yards per drive (3.91), and their +20 point differential ranks eighth in the league.

The biggest issue for this team has been injuries, especially to the receiving corps. That’s already turning around – Mike Evans (81 yards) and Chris Godwin (61) both played in last week’s contest, while running back Leonard Fournette (10 catches, 83 yards) emerged as a surprise pass-catcher in addition to his usual contributions on the ground.

» READ MORE: NFL predictions: Week 6 best bets

Those returning receivers are especially key against this Steelers pass defense, which is mired in an injury spiral of its own. Star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) is among six players who have already been ruled out, which includes four players in the secondary, and elite pass-rusher T.J. Watt (pectoral) is still sidelined heading into Week 6.

Even with those injuries, Pittsburgh’s defense might even be the best unit on the team, as this offense has sputtered regardless of who’s under center. Pickett threw three interceptions in his NFL debut, then followed that up with a 74.8 passer rating against the Bills, who held this offense to a measly three points despite Pickett’s 52 attempts through the air.

There’s little reason to expect much better with offensive coordinator Matt Canada calling the plays, and that’s especially true against Todd Bowles and this tenacious Tampa Bay front. This is a lot of points to stomach on a team that hasn’t played its best football yet, but the Bucs’ floor is still much higher than what we’ve seen from the Steelers at any point this season.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.