Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Take the points with Washington on Monday Night Football

The Philadelphia Eagles are a perfect 8-for-8 halfway through the season. Among the victims: The Washington Commanders, whom Philadelphia smashed 24-8 in D.C. back in Week 3.

That would be the same Commanders who are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Vikings … a team the Eagles manhandled 24-7 in Week 2. And now you understand why oddsmakers made Philadelphia a double-digit favorite for the third consecutive week ahead of their rematch against Washington on Monday Night Football.

Then again, the Eagles failed to cover a big number last Thursday in Houston. And the Commanders haven’t suffered a double-digit defeat in six weeks. So where are we going with our Commanders vs. Eagles prediction? Probably not in the same direction as the majority of Monday Night Football bettors.

Here’s our best bet for this clash of NFC East rivals at Lincoln Financial Field.

Note: Odds updated as of 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 14.

We get it: Washington hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of a schedule. And each time the team has stepped up in class, it has fallen short.

Over a three-week stretch beginning in late September, the Commanders suffered that 16-point home loss to Philly; got drubbed by Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in Dallas (25-10 loss); and blew a home game against the Titans (21-17).

However, Carson Wentz was Washington’s quarterback in each of those games — and he was a huge reason why his team lost them all.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ perfect start might not mean a perfect finish, NFL history shows

Following the Titans defeat, the Commanders went to Chicago, posted an ugly 12-7 win over the Bears and lost Wentz to a fractured finger. In stepped Taylor Heinicke, who started 15 games last season, and Washington promptly upset the Packers (23-21 as a 4-point home underdog) and Colts (17-16 as a 3-point road pup).

Heinicke and the Commanders failed to run their winning streak to four in a row last Sunday, blowing 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Minnesota and losing 20-17 as a 3-point home underdog.

It was a bad loss, to be sure. But given what the Vikings (now 9-1) did in Buffalo on Sunday, it’s impressive that Washington even had such a late lead.

Also impressive: Washington’s performance on defense of late. In five games since the back-to-back poor efforts against Philly and Dallas — which were preceded by a 36-29 loss at Detroit — the Commanders have yielded an average of 17 points.

Are the Eagles the superior side in this one? Of course. Should they take care of business and improve to 9-0? Absolutely. But this isn’t the same Commanders squad that Philadelphia toyed with seven weeks ago.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Commanders: Local and national media predictions for Week 10 Monday Night Football

And while the Eagles’ defense continues to dominate, the fact is they have allowed the same number of points the last five games (85) as Washington. If the Commanders’ offense can hit that average Monday night — and they have scored 23, 17 and 17 since Heinicke took over — Philadelphia would have to produce 29 to cover this inflated point spread.

The Eagles have done that in half of their eight wins (29 at Houston; 35 vs. Pittsburgh; 29 vs. Jacksonville; 38 at Detroit). In the other four contests, though? 26, 20, 24 and 24.

When these rivals met at the Linc on a Monday night in mid-December last season, the Eagles won 27-17, pushing as a 10-point home favorite. With the way Washington’s defense is going right now, we think a 10-point win is Philly’s absolute ceiling.

Grab the points with the underdog Commanders at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: NFL Week 11: Eagles, Ravens among biggest favorites in early look at slate

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